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columnist: Bob Nightingale

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Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008

NC's Upset Winner is . . . Alan Keyes?


Just when you thought it was over, this race gets a little stranger. Keyes may get a couple delegates to the convention.
by Bob Nightingale
(libertarian)
Wednesday, May 7, 2008

John McCain got the most votes in North Carolina, followed by Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. But there were several thousands who cast their votes for Alan Keyes.

Although many states in this year's Republican Primary season have a winner-take-all delegate allocation, North Carolina is different. It allocates its delegates based on a vote distribution. Here is an explanation of the process from The Green Papers website ([link edited for length]):

  • The State Chairman shall allocate Delegate positions between the Candidates accurately reflecting the division of votes in the statewide primary. Each person nominated as a Delegate at either the District or State Convention must have publicly declared as a representative of a Candidate on the Presidential Preference Primary ballot prior to the election of Delegates to the National Convention.
  • The "Uncommitted" position, not being a candidate, might not receive any delegates.

North Carolina is also different in that the top three chair people do not necessarily act as super delegates. Most other states reserve those three votes for the chair man, chair woman and chair "person".

Taking my numbers from the official North Carolina Elections website ([link edited for length]), it looks like John McCain didn't get every crumb.

Candidate% VoteVotesVotes to Cand's% to a Cand.Est. of Del's
No Preference3.99%20,66700.0%-
Alan Keyes2.63%13,63113,6312.7%2
Ron Paul7.22%37,39237,3927.5%5
Mike Huckabee12.17%63,06163,06112.7%9
John McCain73.99%383,401383,40177.1%53
TOTAL 518,152497,485100.0%69

The first three columns were from the state elections website. I extrapolated the last three columns.

Honestly, I had forgotten that Alan Keyes was even on the ballot, as did CNN. This is their chart as of 12:44 a.m. EST, May 7, 2008:

CandidateVotesVote %Del*
McCain381,13873%0
Huckabee62,91712%0
Paul40,2758%0
No Preference20,3054%0

MSNBC's website was a little better. Their numbers are the same as CNN's, but they included Alan Keyes.  I find it interesting that the statisticians of both companies unplug their computers at the same time.  It must be a union thing to stop working at 1 a.m.

CandidateVotes% of votesDelegates won
John McCain381,138 74%0
Mike Huckabee62,917 12%0
Ron Paul40,275 8%0
No Preference20,305 4% 
Alan Keyes13,589 3% 

Last year, many polls and pundits were projecting Rudy Giuliani as the best hope of the Republican Party (see Gallop page at USAElectionPolls.com [link edited for length] ).   How strange is it that Alan Keyes may end up with more delegates in the convention? Both of them.

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©2008 Bob Nightingale, all rights reserved. You must have written permission from the author in order to republish this work.
Published: Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Last modified: Wednesday, May 7, 2008

The views expressed in this article are those of Bob Nightingale only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Bob Nightingale is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.

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Reader Comments:

Posted By: Keyes/Nopreference 08
Date: 2008-05-07 12:26:53

Our candidates got just as many votes as Ron Paul! Clearly the Keyes/Noprefference Revolation is a success!

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