Liberty in America
columnist: rtbohan

Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
The Voters' Choices: Primaries in IN & NC

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With temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s under clear skies in Indiana and North Carolina, voters turned out in record numbers

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by rtbohan
(Libertarian)
Wednesday, May 7, 2008

The North Carolina and Indiana primaries were billed as the"last big primary test," although contests still remain. And the candidates and voters acted as though it mattered, with last minute campaign appearances by the four remaining candidates, and record early voting.

The Democratic ballot in Indiana listed Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama.  The outcomes today will not end the contest between the two candidates, but eventually one of them will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.  The Republican ballot lists Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.  Huckabee and Romney have dropped out of the race (or at least stopped campaigning).  The list of candidates, however, became official on February 29, so all four remain on the ballot.

The North Carolina ballot offers a twist for the voters.  On the Democratic side, voters can choose to vote for Clinton,Obama, or Mike Gravel, or choose to vote against all three, since there is a No Preference line on the ballot.  The Republican ballot is even stranger, lists Mike Huckabee, Alan Keyes, John McCain and Ron Paul, in addition to No Preference.  How Alan Keyes made the list is a mystery.  The list was compiled by the party leadership.  They said that they had included all the candidates people were talking about.  I don't know of anybody except the editorial board of the Des Moines Register who seriously spoke of Alan Keyes as a serious candidate.  I think the object was to split the anti-McCain vote between as many lines as possible so that his lack of popularity would not be immediately evident on scanning the returns.

Despite the wishes of the Democratic Party leadership and the hopes of the two candidates, Indiana and North Carolina left the race between Clinton and Obama where it has been for the last several weeks and where it will remain until the convention.  Neither candidate is going to voluntarily withdraw.  There is at this point no viable alternative to nominating either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama, or pushing one of them  out of the race.  The push would have to come from a majority of the Superdelegates in unison.

As election day approached, the hopes of the Clinton camp were for a Clinton victory by a large margin in Indiana, and at worst a narrow defeat in North Carolina.  This would not bring her the pledged delegates she needs, but it might bring some more superdelegates.  Senator Evan Bayh tried to keep the other superdelegates from Indiana from making an endorsement too soon.  This was not completely successful.  But at least one Democratic congressman announced that he would follow the votes of the primary in his casting his vote.

Senator Clinton carried Indiana by a vote of 638k274 (51%) to 615,862 (49%).  This apparently gives her 37 pledged delegates from the state to 33 for Senator Obama.  It is a victory, and it is a come from behind victory, but by itself irt would still leave Senator Obama with a delegate lead of 104.  And it was achieved after Senator Obama was pretty much savaged by the Reverend Wright fallout, Bill Clinton transformed himself from "the first Black President" to the good old boy, and Senator Clinton, who had earlier made a $5 million personal loan to her campaign, showed up driving a piciup and complained about high gas prices.  It was a small victory at a large price.

In North Carolina, Senator Mike Gravel was on the Democratic ticket and managed to finish behind "No Preference".  His career as a Democrat appears to be over.  That should not upset him as he has already announced his campaign for the Libertarian Party nomination,  He has not so far found more support in his new party than in his old one.

Senator Clinton's hopes for a narrow loss in North Carolina were frustrated as Senator Obama cruised to victory by a margin of almost 250.000 votes, 890,695 (56%) ro 657m920 (42%).  The victory gives Senator Obama 61 pledged delegates to Senator Clinton'31 so far, more than making up for Clinton's gains in Indiana.

The remaining delegate selections, aside from the superdelegates do not allow either of the two candidates to secure a majority in the convention.  Neither campaign has been able to achieve closure.  Obama, as Senator Clinton points out, can't "close the deal", and Senator Clinton can't close the gap.  The superdelegates will have to determine the nominee.  If they go for Obama, they can expect Clinto to continue to campaign for his defeat; if they choose Clinton, the party will loose their almost automatic hold on black voters.  What looked in January like a dream year for the Democratic Party is turning into a nightmare.

In the Republic primaries, John McCain crept closer to the 80-90% one would expect a candidate who already has a mahority of the pledged delegates to win, but he did not quite achieve it  Senator

in Indiana, McCain won 317,837 votes, (78%) against three candidates, only one of whom is still campaigning.  Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney were on the ballot, and won a combined total of a little over 91,000.  This is still a pretty high total under the circumstances.  Mike Huckabee fininshed second in the voting with just over 41,000 votes, and Ron Paul was third with just over 31,000. Paul received 8% of the total vote, which is about his average throughout the campaign, but is a disappointment to his supporters after his strong showing in the Pennsylvania primary.

In the North Carolina Republican primary, Alan Keyes achieved the distinction of finishing behind No Preference.  Like Senator Gravel, who finished last in the Democratic primary, Keyes had already announced his candidacy for another party's nomination.  The Constitution Party turned  him down last week. Semator McCain won a litlle over 381,000(74%), but this is almost 300,000 less than Senator Clinton received in losing the Democratic primary. Almost 140,000 Republicans showed up to vote against Senator McCain.  Even if we assume that a number of McCain's supporters were following the Limbaugh strategy and voting for Senator Clinton, this should send a strong alarm through the Rephblican leadership.

Among those who did not vote for McCain, Mike Huckabee recived 62,917 votes( (12%) and Ron Paul 40,275 (8%).  Huckabee's votes presumably were mostly cast by religious conservatives, a strong group in North Carikina.  Representative Paul's vote shows tha the revolution is still going, and will remain viable in the state.

Assuming that the media are correct and that the nominees are John McCain for the Republicans and either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for the democrats, the race should remain interesting both through the two conventions and the November election.  Given the returns from yesterday's primaries, the winner in November may not be the candidate who attracts the most independents, but the one who drives away the fewests of his/her party's traditional voters.

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2008 rtbohan, all rights reserved.
Published: Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Last modified: Wednesday, May 7, 2008

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