Oil may reach $200 due to the declining dollar. Fortunately there may be a solution. by Kipper Mathews
(libertarian)
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The head of Brazil's National Petroleum Agency claims that a new offshore oil field, located off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil that contains 33 billion barrels of oil. This new find, if true, called the Carioca field would be the worlds largest. Last year Brazil located two other important fields. One was the 8 million barrel Tupi offshore oil field and the other was a huge natural gas field called Jupiter. Those two fields alone are double the US oil reserves in size.
The United States imports about half of it's 10 million barrels-per-day (BPD) from the Western hemisphere countries of Mexico, Canada and Venezuela. If the US got the other half of it's 10 million BPD from Brazil it would totally remove the US dependency for oil from the Middle East.
Believe it or not, some people are saying that oil is one of the main reasons for a US military presence in the Middle East. If the US were to get that oil elsewhere, many believe that the political "need" to be in the Middle East, that has been pushed by the Bush Administration, would need to be reevaluated.
Although these new finds will most likely not be producing oil before the end of the Bush presidency, it is said that he may try to kick start some sort of deal with Brazil, to secure US interests in the region and to guarantee that the US gets a majority of Brazil's oil. (It wouldn't hurt the failing GOP image either).
The question then would be how would he wiggle his way out of all his comments about "staying the course in Iraq until we win" and or "until Iraq is stable" comments without looking as though he was misleading either country. Will he continue to stay the course at the cost of more American lives and treasures to save his face or will he find an excuse reason to leave. Most likely he will wait it out until closer to November before making any decisions on the matter in hopes that he can pass the blame of his "cut and run" exit from Iraq on to the incoming President.
Fortunately for him there is one other possibility.
The United States is not the only country in the world drooling over the abundant oil reserves in the Middle East. The oil dependent countries of China, Japan and India are eyeballing the Middle East for their addiction for oil. China and India have already began an undeclared arms race and are converging on the area. It is said that China is building ports that "look like"naval bases in Pakistan and Myanmar and India has began building aircraft carriers to secure their interests in the region. If the US was to turn away, India and China would most likely rush in to fill the vacuum and secure their access to the Gulf's oil. That would leave Iraq's security, that Americans have paid so dearly trying to establish, in the hands of somebody other than Al-Queda.
VIEW POINT:
It's almost a win-win situation for George.... and the country.
Can he pull it off in a way that makes him look good in the eyes of distrustful Americans?
We will see.
Will it make-up for his lies and mistakes?
Not for me.
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As to the gist of your article which I believe is - use the "hopeful" discoveries of off shore oil in Brazil as a reason to scale back our involvement in the Middle East. I agree, use whatever reason, just get out.
As to Brazil it was very irresponsible and possibly criminal for Haroldo Lima to prematurely claim a find of 33 billion barrels. I believe there is an investigation under way. [Link Edited For Length] Regardless, the cost of and the technological difficulties are incredible to say the least. Brazil:Brazil's plan to become one of the world's biggest oil exporters hinges on exploiting crude six miles below the ocean surface in deposits so hot they can melt the metal used to carry uranium to nuclear plants.
Tapping what may be the biggest oil finds in the Western Hemisphere in three decades will require equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per square inch of pressure, enough to crush a pickup truck, pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above 500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius) and drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more than one mile thick. (My note: The oil would not come on line for at least a decade and historically offshore wells peak and decline much quicker.)http://www.alternet.org/environment/83548/
We have to get off oil. It's a hopeless dead end. Every ounce of energy and every dollar of capital needs to be put into clean renewable sources of energy. Regardless of where the oil is coming from the money will be flowing from the United States to somewhere else. Grow food closer to cities, make things here, trade with closer neighbors.
$200 barrel oil will translate into about $10 per gallon of gas...imagine the economic and social consequences of prices at that height, within say three years.
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