Liberty in America
columnist: rtbohan

Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Watching Montana

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Ron Paul is speaking Monday in Montana where a strange delegate selection process threatens McCain's march to the nomination

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by rtbohan
(Libertarian)
Friday, April 18, 2008

Ron Paul will be in Missoula, Montana on Monday, still campaigning in a state where not even the Republican party establishment  supports John McCain.  Thanks to a rather Byzantine method of selecting delegates, the votes Montana in the Republican National convention may still be in play.

Montana will be holding a primary election in June, but the delegates have already been pledged to Mitt Romney by the party.  This pledge is not revocable, but may become so with the primary and the state party's convention.

In theory, the delegates were pledged through county caucuses held on super Tuesday.  But these caucuses were not like the Iowa caucuses.  The ordinary voter was excluded from participation in naming the party's nominee because the state party ruled that only precinct chairpersons and county party officials were allowed to vote.

Mitt Romney, who began his campaign in  the state in September, 2007, and spent by far the most money, finished first in the balloting with 38% of the vote, Ron Paul was second with 25%.  McCain finished a close third with 22% and Mike Huckabee won 15%.  In more meaningful terms, Romney won twenty counties, including the countires containing the cities of Helena, Great Falls and Billings.  He also tied with McCain in three counties.  In addition to the three ties with Romney, McCain carried six counties

Representative Paul carried Basin, Blaine Dawson, Fergus, Lake, Missoula, Richland, Roosevelt and Sanders counties.  Missoula County includes the city of Missoula and the University of Montana where Representative Paul will be speaking next week.

Under the rules of the Montana Republican Party, all twenty five delegates to national convention are pledged to the winner of the caucus vote unless they are released by that candidate.  If the winning candidate releases his delegates, the delegates may be assigned on the  basus if the upcoming primary.

So far the only vocal opposition to making the primary meaningless seems to be coming from The Missoulian newpaper. (www.missoulian.com).

That paper, in an editorial last Sunday, said "Preidential nominees should not be determined by a select few.  Delegates should be required to cast their votes...in proportion to the results of their state primaries. That way, voters would...get to decide who will be the next President....And isn't that the way it was originally meant to be?"

The answer to the Missoulian's last question is, of course, "No.  Originally, that is constitutionally, the individual voter was to have no direct  voice in the selection of the President."

But we can leave that aside for now to consider the current situation.  As the Missoulian mentions in the same editorial, there is no apparent way that the delegates from Montana will be pledged to Senator McCain.  Mitt Romey has stated that, since he has not officially ended his candidacy but simply suspended the campaign, he intends to maintain his claim to the Montana delegates.  This means that he will direct those delegates to vote in a particular way on all qustions before the convention prior to the nomination, and then try to throw his votes to McCain.

As the Missoulian also points out, it would be difficult for the party to shift the votes to McCain in any cae, because if Romney should abandon his claim to the delegation, the fact that Ron Paul finished second in the caucuses would give him a prior claim.

So Montana is still worth watching and worth winning.  Ron Paul has support and may defeat McCain in the primary which would put additional pressure on both Romney and the state Republican party.  In any case, it is a chance for Montanans to make a statement about the nomination.  And that statemeent could well be "No John McCain."

It could also be, "Bring on the Revolution".

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2008 rtbohan, all rights reserved.
Published: Friday, April 18, 2008
Last modified: Friday, April 18, 2008

The views expressed in this article are those of rtbohan only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. rtbohan is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.

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