Topic: Politics
Going, Going, Gone The Declining Dollar May Never Recover. . .just as planned.by Kipper Mathews
(Libertarian)
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Some people are saying that the Bush Administration may have orchestrated the declining dollar, in hopes that Americans will see truth in their logic of radical, yet necessary changes, which include but are not limited to the introduction of the NAU (North American Union).
Although attempts by concerned citizens to warn the American public of the Government's plan to secretly install the NAU without public support, George Bush and others have continuously written them off as humorous conspiracy theories .
However while most Americans laugh off such theories, George Bush and Company continue to conspire their manipulation of the already tested vulnerable public.
The Administration's view is, the more desperate the American public becomes due to the weakening US Dollar and their acknowledgment that the country is in a (deep) recession, the easier it will be to convince the them that the only way America can compete with the Euro would be the introduction of the Amero.
It is also said that once the Amero is in circulation the dollar would simply be canceled and considered worthless much as the Confederate dollar was after The Civil War.
The biggest problem facing George Bush at this time in implementing this plan is his low popularity. However the plan (excuse me....conspiracy theory) for the NAU has been on the table for decades and is going to stay there until it is the law-of-the-land. If one plan does not work they will try another. Nothing is going to stop them and it will never go away.
It has also been suggested that it may be necessary for another 911 type of event or a series of them to pull the country back together again in order to rally the country towards unity. This would also reinstate George Bush's support and open the door for stricter new improvements to the Patriot Act, enacted by his Executive Orders. If it can not be accomplished by Al-Queda it would have to be orchestrated to appear as though it was. It is suspected that he might even blame it on the Iranians to escalate military actions against them.
It is said however that the Republican Party is not satisfied with the neo-conservative direction this administration has taken their party and may not back this plan. It has also been suggested that the US Military, seeing through George Bush's intended dictatorial principles to create a police state might be skeptical as well.
VIEW POINT:
If in fact these findings are only conspiracy theories, I will publicly offer an apology.
However I would rather be considered a fool, than be one.
The more exposure these plans get the less likely it is that they can be secretly accomplished.
I Hope.
References:
USA Gold Live
RIA Novosti
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2008 Kipper Mathews, all rights reserved.
Published: Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Last modified: Wednesday, March 26, 2008
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Posted By: Christopher Espinal
Date: 2008-03-25 22:18:29
The so-called declining dollar will recover. It will recover once the Fed realizes it can't stimulate the economy by pumping more money into circulation.
You sound skeptical that the dollar is in trouble at all by the way youphrased "so-called". Do you believe the dollar will recover? Because lets face it, the Fed has had nearly 90 years to improve the value of the dollar since its existence. But instead has made the dollar lose its value by 97%.
So my question to you is: Assuming the Fed comes to its senses that it can't stimulate the economy, long term, by pumping more money into the system or making it cheaper through rate cuts: What else would the Fed do and when do you feel this revelation will come about?
Posted By: Christopher Espinal
Date: 2008-03-25 23:41:08
Mr. 1up,
The dollar isn't in trouble because we still purchase quite substantially from abroad; in other words we import a hella lot. This is the first indicator that the dollar is still quite strong.
When you talk about the "decline of the dollar" it sounds as if you are saying that this will be disastrous for this country. Inflation has very small short run costs on the economy - in the long run we don't lose purchasing power. The inflation comes back to us. The only problem that can arise is if we create bubbles - which does happen. Even then, our economic system always recovers - we are far better off than most nations in terms of recovering from recessions caused by bubbles.
We don't want to deflate the value of the currency because that will lead to a fall in the price-level and quite possibly a fall in output. This equation explains it all: MV=PY.
A fall in output is definitely not what we want.
The Fed will eventually come to the conclusion that it can no longer stimulate the economy - most serious Monetarists and believers in Rational Expectations are putting the Fed under pressure to cease its counter-cyclical policies and begin targeting inflation and price stability.
Whether or not you believe in the Fed and it's workings is subject to much debate. This is a controversy in which most economists will never come to agree.
Just to counter the Austrian School of Economics studies do show that central banks that are not tightly knit with Federal Governments in general have good inflationary policies. It has also been shown that consumers lose purchasing power in the short run due to inflationary policies - the real value of people's money eventually returns to proper levels in the long run.
I am seriously considering trying to design, write, or adopt a legal clause for any future loans which I establish in my name. The goal of course would be to ensure the loan was confined to the F.R.A.U.D. dolllars, and that any unilateral attempt by the lender to convert the debt into another currency would immediately render the debt paid in full.
Once the clause was created I would simply hand write it on any loan documentation and ensure that the loan officer signed off on the clause; "after all, dollars are the only legal currency by law". Then, if the goals of the NAU come to fruition then whatever their machinations against the personal debt of millions of Americans, I at least would be covered.
How is our purchasing power up, if the dollar is falling faster in value than the currencies of other nations? That makes no sense, to me. (Note: I am not an expert in economics).
Beyond that, besides loss of purchasing power, the savings that many build up over a lifetime bear far less fruit than was planted. And even beyond that, a look at oil and food prices will expose just how inflated the currency is. The price of oil hasn't so much increased, as the amount of dollars needed to purchase it has increased.
As for our output, it flattened in 2007 and I suspect with the economy in a downward trend, that it will indeed fall. How much, we don't know right now.
The Fed creates the bubbles and expands the bubble with each intervention of the market. If the natural flow of the market were allowed without the insertion of a credit bound market, than this would have never happened. But with a fiat money system comes a responibility and a restraint that NO nation has ever been able to succeed with.
Posted By: Christopher Espinal
Date: 2008-03-26 01:26:47
Our purchasing power is up but the dollar is still relatively strong. We are inflating the hell out of our currency but it is still up there because our trade deficit hasn't closed or hasn't moved.
You are right in saying that the Fed creates bubbles - not intentionally though. It's hard to create one just as it's hard to get out of one. It's not as simple as making the economy move faster.
Output hasn't flattened out. Revised numbers for GDP went up from .6 to 1.6% in terms of projections made by the CBO. The downward trend will continue to happen if more banks like Bear Stearns continue to topple - thus dropping confidence in banks leading to massive bank runs. It is debateable whether or not the Fed took the right step in bailing out BStearns.
Are you so sure that this would never have happened without a credit backed market? Whenever interest rates are low, artificially or not, people will take risks with their money - as what happened when banks started lending money to people with no credit history. That risk is overshadowed by too much confidence - caused by low offering rates. The point is that bubbles can arise whenever people are overlyconfident - not necessarily a derivative of artificial tinkering with the money supply.
If our dollar is so strong, why is Isreal asking for it's aid in Euros? Why are foreign investors selling out their dollars and why is oil so high in relation to the dollar, but has remained stable in relation to gold? Our economy is in real trouble and yet I still hear fiddles playing in DC.
I am saying that this dollar crisis would not have happened in a credit backed market, or the sub-prime mortgage crisis for that matter, if we were not currently on a fiat money system. Of course, this is debateable since we currently do not have a system of currency backed by a commodity.
Revised numbers? I didn't find any so if you could tell me where you got that, that'd be nice (Not trying to be condescending, there. I really can't find them). From a moralistic and philosophic stand point, I don't think the Fed should have had any part in the buyout of Bear Stearns. Smaller banks would not get the same treatment. If you make mistakes, like Bear Stearns did, then they should suffer the consequences. This is how a free market system functions. But the Fed did intervene and has disrupted that process. Since the free market system is trademarked by a self sustaining process, wouldn't the fact that the Fed has taken it upon itself to prop this bank up promote a fear that the economy is deteriorating?
This is how the bubbles start. We never had a bubble problem quite like this back in the day. For an example, you could say the cotton industry had built itself a massive bubble, back in the day. So when the bugs came and ate the crop, the southern planters were in big trouble. Along came this guy...with a great innovation of the use of peanuts. Southern planters started growing peanuts instead and the loans needed to fund the farmers started flowing again. Through creativity, a trust rather than fear mentality and change; the market was able to sustain itself, without a massive intervention.
I have confidence the market will pick itself back up on its own. But the fed is like a hawkish parent who won't let its child make mistakes. Sure they avoid the minor injuries when they're young, but when they get away from their parent, the child will make bigger mistakes that they wouldn't have had they had the experience.
I hope that made sense.
Lastly, if the trend of 200 billion dollar bail outs continue, than we will NEVER get our purchasing power back.
Posted By: Carl Buschmann
Date: 2008-03-26 17:53:30
The purchasing power of the dollar always goes down when the presses are running. Inflation goes up. This benefits the government but not the citizens. For each item that is increased in price is in effect an additional tax. People on set incomes are experiencing in real time that their dollar buys less. Some are having to cut back on food.
Gas going up is also caused by inflation as well as the supply and demand factor.
Therefore the government is reponsible for the mess we are in. They were elected to serve us but they served themselves with our money instead. The Federal Reserve should be terminated.
Posted By: Christopher Espinal
Date: 2008-03-26 21:20:13
Mr. 1up - the revised numbers are published by the congressional budget office. Let me see if I can pull it up for you....it was published in the middle of Feb. [link edited for length]. I posted this link several weeks ago and everyone on this site rejected it - calling it "false government #'s".
The first time they projected output growth for Q4 it was at 0.6%...then they revised it to 1.6% That means quite a bit. After the BStearns incident confidence can still certainly fall and lead us into a recession.
You are right in saying that Fed is acting like a hawkish parent. Good analogy!
For everyone else - yes the dollar is weak compared to the Euro but manufacturers in Europe are complaining because they aren't exporting ....because their currency is so strong.
The worst thing that will happen from a weak dollar is that we will start exporting because more people can afford our goods. That will close the deficit or cause it to shrink.
The markets will eventually respond to the massive printing because of rational expectations. From then on....the Fed will get the hint that they should raise interest rates and maintain stability in prices. I would only say that because Bernanke is in the house....even though I'm still skeptical of what he's doing.
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2008 Kipper Mathews, all rights reserved.