Democratic Primaries Skewed toward Clinton by FL, MI
The DNC has nearly guaranteed Sen. Clinton will get at least half the delegates before Feb. 5, as of today. by Bob Nightingale
(libertarian)
Monday, November 26, 2007
This chart at www.TheGreenPapers.com tells the story very well. Unless something changes in the next couple weeks, Senator Clinton will be awarded most of Michigan's 156 delegates, out of the 330 that are available before Super Tuesday. That a 47% lock on early delegates and a stranglehold on any early momentum.
Most of the news media is focused on Iowa and New Hampshire. With 57 and 30 delegates, respectively, how much momentum is that really? Between Jan. 8 and Jan. 15, the date of Michigan's Primary, there is plenty of time to spin those results. Nevada and South Carolina might actually be a bit more interesting, since those are the two last states for Democrats to boast any momentum.
Actions by the states and the Democratic National Committee, as well as the candidates themselves, have brought this about. In a move to reassert themselves in the national discussion, several states have ignored the national party and moved their primary dates ahead of Feb. 5, "Super Tuesday".
To date, the DNC has penalized only Florida for moving up their primary date to Jan. 19. 210 delegates and the opinion of Florida's residents will not count.
The story in Michigan is a little different. The DNC threatened to strip Michigan of its delegates. But as of this writing, Michigan still has all 156 delegates. There is one problem. Although most of the candidates have pledged not to campaign or spend money in Michigan, not all of them took themselves off the ballot. Democratic Party voters will have to choose among Clinton, Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel. As a matter of principle and loyalty to the DNC, Obama, Edwards, Biden and Richardson have withdrawn. There is a move by the Michigan state legislature to reverse that. Although the delegates are chosen proportionately, I'm guessing the Hillary supporters are greater in every district than the other three candidates combined, and will give her all the delegates in the state.
What's sad is that Sen. Clinton will get all these delegates at no cost. For Michigan residents, if you're a strong union guy, you won't see Edwards. If you wanted to see the first black man get elected president, you don't have a chance to vote for Obama. If you want the war to end, but want to keep the troops funded, you can't for vote for Biden. If you want to see another governor as president, or are looking for a close race, you'd have to vote Republican.
But if you're an undecided Democratic voter coming into the booth on Feb. 5th, and you know the results of the earlier states, why bother with someone in third place or lower? Unless the Democratic party or Michigan makes changes in the next couple weeks, Clinton is guaranteed second place, and very likely will be first.
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The views expressed
in this article are those of Bob Nightingale only and
do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates.
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