The continuing rEVOLution
columnist: George Dance

Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
The Republican race is not over

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John McCain has been crowned the "invevitable nominee" for the Presidential nomination. But four of his five Iowa opponents still have a chance to win a prize.

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by George Dance
(libertarian)
Sunday, February 17, 2008

Mike Huckabee, with one eye on the VP spot all along, has kowtowed to McCain throughout the campaign. Even before Iowa, pundits were commenting on the strange alliance between the two camps. It was a marriage of convenience: Huckabee kept the conservative evangelical vote away from Mitt Romney, keeping McCain competitive in the crucial first few primaries.

Huckabee, though, has yet to attract significant numbers of non-evangelical conservative voters. He must do so dramatically to have any chance at the Presidential nomination. He must do so to some degree to even be considered for running mate. He needs to package himself as the anti-McCain, and convince all of McCain's opponents to rally around him.

To accomplish that, Huckabee has to overcome two significant challenges. First, he has to appeal to conservatives; but he is no conservative. His social policy is passable, but his economic policies are watered-down progressivism: The politician he most resembles is Tommy Douglas, the Baptist preacher who headed Canada's social democratic NDP in the 1960's. He is in no position to criticize McCain's liberal record on anything.

Second, Huckabee cannot seriously attack McCain without breaking their tacit alliance, thereby destroying his chance to be McCain's running mate. His dilemma is that, if he does not attack McCain, there is little chance of him receiving enough of the anti-McCain vote to be a serious threat; and unless he can do that, there is little incentive for McCain to offer him the VP slot.

Rudy Giuliani has a far better chance at that position. He has done McCain two invaluable favors, one inadvertent and one advertent. The first was to have his campaign collapse, and half his voters flee to the McCain camp, during the Florida primary. The second was to withdraw from the race immediately afterward, rather than (as I'd expected) hanging on one more week to pick up as many delegates as possible on Feb. 5..

Most of Giuliani's support went to McCain, giving him a 20-point surge in the polls right on time for the Super Duper vote. Had Giuliani stayed in the race, he could have won New York and New Jersey, and Romney would have won California; raising the imminent prospect of an open convention. Instead, McCain won all three states and the mantle of inevitability.

However, withdrawing eliminates Giuliani as a player. All he can do now is watch from the sidelines, and hope his past favors are duly rewarded.

Mitt Romney, not to be outdone, has gone out of his way to cater to McCain since Super Duper Tuesday. First, he suspended his campaign for the sake of McCain's war policy. A week later, he dropped out completely, released his delegates, and endorsed McCain -- who is now free to campaign against two candidates with limited appeal. There seems little left to stop McCain from picking up the less than 300 delegates he needs to prevent an open convention.

Thanks to that favor, Romney appears to have the best chance at the VP slot. Guiliani has the next best chance, Huckabee the worst. That could change, though, if the conservative vote does flock to the preacher and he becomes a real threat. But there is no sign yet of that happening. .

Ron Paul, finally, has no chance at all to be the running mate. McCain wouldn't offer him the spot, nor would Paul take it if it were offered.. Paul will not even endorse McCain unless the latter "has a lot of change-of-heart" on the issues, and McCain is not noted for ever changing his heart or mind on anything.

Paul's campaign was seriously hurt by two hits from the Giuliani camp; the second being Giuliani's withdrawal, which almost eliminated Pau's hope of an open convention. The first was a series of sustained attacks on Paul the days before and of the NH primary by Giuliani supporters like David Frum and James Kirchick, tarring him as everything from mentally ill to a racist bigot. The Paul surge in that state - he had hit 14% and 17% in statewide polls - was stopped in its tracks. Paul finished in a disappointing 5th place with 8%, his newly-won independents abandoning him to scatter between McCain and the Democrats.

Despite winning no states, Paul is staying in the race to pick up as many delegates as possible, counting on the slim remaining chance of a brokered convention. The war for those delegates is being fought in countless skirmishes in every state, on two separate fronts.

The first is the battle for Romney's 300 delegates, now free to vote their consciences. Paul's support has been highest in the states Romney won, and he is the second choice of many Romney voters in states from Maine to Utah. Paul's enthusiastic supporters are now waging a feverish guerilla war for the hearts and minds of as many of those 300 as possible.

Paul's second front is the battle with Huckabee to be the anti-McCain, the one all that all McCain's opponents can rally to. He has two opportunities to do that; but also a dilemma of his own..

First, unlike Huckabee (or McCain), Paul can credibly appeal to conservatives. On issues from big government to taxes to fiscal policy to abortion to gun control, his conservative credentials are impeccable. He needs to emphasize his record and that opposition.

Second, Paul has the ideal wedge issue - his opposition to McCain's Hundred Years' War policy - to peel away McCain's independent and crossover Democrat support. He needs to highlight that issue as well.

Which gives rise to Paul's dilemma. If he highlights his core conservatism, he risks alienating moderates and crossover Democrats; while if he emphasizes foreign policy, he risks alienating core conservatives. Yet he must attract both groups to have a serious shot at the nomination.

As slim as it is, though, Paul has the only chance of any candidate (besides McCain) for this year's Presidential nomination. The others, including Huckabee, can at best hope for VP this year and a chance to try again in 2012.

McCain still has many "miles to go and promises to keep" before he becomes the nominee. With most of the winner-take-all primaries over, he will not so easily pick up the 300 delegates he needs for a first-ballot win. However, at this point the only thing that can - and will - deny him the nomination is an open convention. The odds of an open convention are short, and the winning strategy for his opponents to secure one still elusive. Bet that as it may, the Republican race is still far from over.

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©2008 George Dance, all rights reserved. You must have written permission from the author in order to republish this work.
Published: Sunday, February 17, 2008
Last modified: Sunday, February 17, 2008

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