Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Washington State's 2nd Chance Republican Primary Tuesday With most of the media declaring John McCain the Republican nominee, most are ignoring that he hasn't gotten a lock on the remaining states yet.by DigitalBob
(Libertarian)
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Half of Washington's GOP delegates (19 of 40) will be determined in a winner-take-all primary Tuesday Feb 19. It could be one of the states where an aggressive Huckabee or Paul campaign might have a chance of taking a state--or at least, preventing McCain from getting it. The first 18 delegates were supposed to have been chosen and allocated proportionately by the state caucus on Saturday Feb 9. As of today (2/16/08) the state GOP website shows that with 96% of the precincts reporting, McCain is leading with 25.6%, Huckabee 23.3%, Paul 21.4%, Romney 15.3%, other 1.1%, and uncommitted at 13.3%. Those 18 delegates go to the convention officially as "unpledged". Although McCain got the checkmark on several reporting sites for Washington, it doesn't appear that he got the majority of the delegates that day.
The Feb 19 primary is winner-take-all for 19 delegates. Although Mitt Romney has formally endorsed John McCain, not all Republicans are excited by his choice as theirs. McCain is accused by the Huckabee campaign of not being the social conservative, and McCain's insistence on remaining in Iraq for 100 years goes against the 1990s Republican philosophy of a humble foreign policy espoused by Ron Paul. McCain's budget and immigrations positions have also been criticized for being too far liberal by both campaigns.
Earlier this week, voters in the Virginia primary didn't automatically line up behind McCain. McCain did win with 50% of the vote, but Huckabee was not too far behind with 41%, and Paul and Romney each got 4%. Unlike the Democratic races, many of the republican primaries, such as Virginia, are winner-take-all.
In order for Republicans to take the fight to the national convention, the Huckabee and Paul camps would have to figure out how to siphon off potential delegates between now and Sep 1, in order to prevent John McCain from reaching his magic number of 1,191. The McCain and Huckabee campaigns have been operating on vapor, while the Ron Paul campaign says it has nearly $5 million in the bank. Mathematically, it would be impossible for either Huckabee or Paul to clinch the nomination, but there is a chance that either campaign, or both working together, could at least bring a floor fight in September. They would have to capitalize on the Romney delegates looking for someone other than McCain to support.
Also on Tuesday, Wisconsin will have its Republican primary. It's winner-take-all for its 40 delegates, by state and congressional district. Most polls have McCain leading at 45% or better, with Huckabee a solid second at 27% or better. Ron Paul is polling consistently at about 7%. The candidate with the most votes gets 16 delegates statewide (including the state chairs), and 24 delegates are distributed 3 to each of 8 congressional districts. A second or third place finisher could win some delegates by concentrating on individual districts.
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2008 DigitalBob, all rights reserved.
Published: Saturday, February 16, 2008
Last modified: Saturday, February 16, 2008
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I thought two of the three delegates for each of the nine congressional districts were determined by the precinct caucuses. All three candidates should get some, especially given the reported super high percentage of votes for Ron Paul in Spokane county. Where is the news on all this?
I have discussed the primary season with countless people in the capitol of a rust belt state, many of whom have never been involved prior to this year. I observe the following based on my discussions with average people in the midwest never affiliated with any party.
Men and women both have disdain for Hillary. Obama is attracting a lot of interest because he seems like the only alternative to status quo (thanks to endless media coverage). The cold weather has severely dampened involvement in Ron Paul's campaign, once it warms a bit I think there will be a noticeable up-tick in outdoor activities and thus awareness of his campaign. People that will vote for McCain are robotic in nature, there is no hope for them. Union folks are wandering around the political wilderness ever since Edwards dropped out and are open to any candidate at this point, catch them away from their union brothers and they will be more open to ideas.
My advice, people from southern states that have been able to get out and march, rally and roll should bring that experience to northern states that have been frozen in for a number of months. Believe me, people seeing tangible support for Ron Paul will aid in bringing them over to the cause. The proposed March on D.C. is a great example of tangible support, I hope it can be done on a smaller scale in state capitols where many have not even heard of Ron Paul.
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2008 DigitalBob, all rights reserved.