Center of the Earth
columnist: DigitalBob

Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Romney Gone, Delegates Available

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Ron Paul and Huckabee camps have to scramble if they want the spoils of the Romney withdrawal.

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by DigitalBob
(Libertarian)
Friday, February 8, 2008

Yesterday (2/7/08) at work (yes, I do have a day job), I heard that Mitt Romney had dropped out of the race. Yesterday Michigan also had its county conventions. Back on Jan 15, Michigan had its primary and chose Romney as its candidate by 38.90% of the popular vote, with McCain at 29.66%, Huckabee at 16.08%, and Ron Paul at 6.27%. But with Romney gone, who gets his delegates? According to the Michigan GOP website, the party's general counsel issued a public statement that the 45 delegates assigned to Romney will now go to the convention as "uncommitted". 10 still are still committed to McCain, 2 are for Huckabee, and 3 are for the state chairs. Since Michigan was penalized by the RNC for having its primary early, it will only be allowed 30 of its original 60 delegates at the convention.

This would have been a golden opportunity for Huckabee or Paul supporters to jump on the empty seats left by disillusioned Romney backers. There were only a few hours to make this happen.

Every state that has Romney delegates will have to make some announcement where they will go. CNN's website shows that McCain has 714 of the 1,191 he needs for the nomination. Romney had 286, Huckabee 181, Paul 16. With races in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington on Saturday, Republicans may cast protest votes Huckabee's or Paul's way. Even if all remaining states go 100% to McCain, the earliest he could get a lock on the nomination would be Mar 4. Several Romney delegates may break his way before then, but there is no way to tell for sure.

When I watched the cable news channels last night, it seemed that most of the announcers believe that Romney's leaving guarantees a McCain victory. However Conservatives will have to swallow hard before they back a candidate that only mildly resembles that label. Radio talk show hosts Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck have routinely criticized McCain's positions on spending, illegal immigration, and campaign finance reform. Huckabee's past positions as governor in Arkansas also were weak on spending and illegal immigration.

Then that leaves Ron Paul. The Conservatives have a hard time reconciling Paul's non-interventionist approach to international affairs as tough on terror. They have gotten used to the Bush-Cheney mantra of "we fight them there so they won't come here". The Fiscal Conservatives are slowly starting to wake up that they way you finance war is just as important as "winning". If you wreck the domestic economy while fighting unending wars, what have you won? Paul pretty much says that in the speech he gave yesterday at the Conservative Political Action Conference, which you can see here, here and here. He was the fourth Republican to speak that day, after Dick Cheney, John McCain and Mitt Romney. McCain didn't do so well with the Conservatives. Romney used the event to announce that he is suspending his run for the party's nomination.

Also, with Romney gone, campaign financing will play an even bigger role going forward. Romney had very deep pockets, something the other three never had personally. The Ron Paul supporters could raise over a million dollars by sending out a few emails. Huckabee has been struggling this whole time. At the end of fourth quarter, McCain was in debt by more than $4.5 million, with less than $3 million cash. The Paul campaign had $7.8 million in the bank with no debt. Huckabee had less than $2 million in cash, with very little debt. All three candidates indicated yesterday that they will keep going--probably until the money runs out.

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2008 DigitalBob, all rights reserved.
Published: Friday, February 8, 2008
Last modified: Saturday, February 9, 2008

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