Hillary's Choice, or How The Democrats Can Lose the Election
If Hillary Clinton does not gain a clear majority of delegates from the coming primaries and caucuses, she has a clear choice to make which may cost her the election by rtbohan
(libertarian)
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Super Tuesday, which was supposed to decide the nomination for both parties has left the Democrats with two candidates in a virtual dead heat. The voters and the party faithful will have the opportunity to end the deadlock over the coming months. But if neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama achieves a clear majority soon,the outcome depends on a choice by Hillary Clinton, and how she makes the choice as well as the choice itself may determine the Democrats' success or failure in November.
If the conteset between Obama and Clinton remains close, and particularly if Obama takes the lead in the coming weeks, what is done about the delegates from Michigan and Florida becomes of critical importance.
The Democratic National committee responded harshly to the decision of these two states to hold their primaries before the post-New Hampshire date set by the Committee. When Michigan moved its primary to an earlier date, the Committee ordered all the Democratic candidates to remove their names from the ballot in that state. All of the candidates except Hillary Clinton did so. The National Committee also stripped the State of its delegates. Clinton, despite a surprisingly strong "None of the Above" vote, won the Michigan primary and promised the Michigan voters that their delegates would be seated.
When Florida also moved its primary to a date before super Tuesday, the National Committee ordered candidates not to advertise in the state, or to send any staff members, or campaign in person there. Again, all candidates except Clinton followed the rules. Using the specious argument that Obama placing an ad on CNN was the same as campaigning in Florida, she campaigned vigorously in the state and finished first. She promised the Florida voters that their delegates, like those from Michigan, would be seated by the convention.
Of course, under party rules it is always possible to seek to overturn the Committee's decision by appealing it to the National Convention. Eisenhower, for example, used this against Taft in 1952, and McGovern used it against Humphrey in 1972. If Clinton has a majority of the seated delegates there is no problem with bringing it to the floor and keeping her promise.
On the other hand, if neither candidate has a majority and particularly if Obama has a lead in delegates, it becomes a bit more of a problem. Her success then depends on convincing enough of the Biden, Dodd and Kucinich delegates, along with unpledged delegates to vote with her. If she overcomes an Obama lead in this way it will damage both her reputation and the solidarity of the party. For one thing it will make her the political version of Leona Helmsley; making it clear that only "little people" obey the rules. For another, it will raise questions about what sort of additional promises she had to make to secure the votes.
If a head count shows that she does not have the votes to successfully make a appeal to the convention, the only option left is to get the National Committee to reverse itself. This will mean that the Democratic Party has given way completely to the Clintonista Party. If the party does not split, this action would leave the door open for either the Republicans or a hurriedly organized independent candidacy to succeed.
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