Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
McCain Could Run The Table Tuesday, Which Is Bad News For Ron Paul The latest surge in the polls for John McCain could be an early sign that he might run the table on Super Duper Tuesday.by Walt Thiessen
(Libertarian)
Sunday, February 3, 2008
I've been looking over the available polling data online for the Super Duper Tuesday states, and the news is not good for Ron Paul supporters. There is a good chance that John McCain could nearly run the table and win nearly all of the primaries that day. If that happens, it could give him such a large lead in the delegate count that no one could catch him.
Even if he doesn't run the table, based on the latest polling data, McCain looks very likely to end up with at least 550-750 delegates out of roughly 1050 available delegates at the end of the day on Tuesday. He already has 97 delegates after his win in Florida. With only 1191 delegates needed to guarantee nomination, it means he'll only need to capture somewhere between 350 and 550 delegates out of the remaining 1100 or so delegates after Super Tuesday to win the nomination outright.
No matter which way I look at it, I can only conclude that this would be a significant blow to the hopes of the Paul campaign, which has been arguing for some time now that the convention will be a brokered convention, with none of the candidates having a lock on a first ballot nomination. A brokered convention would make it feasible for the Paul campaign to continue to offer itself to delegates as a way back to what Paul has been calling the "traditional conservative" option, claiming he is the only option in that regard.
But if McCain is as close to winning the nomination on Tuesday as the polls suggest he'll be, it will be almost impossible to stop him. Even if he lost roughly a third of his current support levels in the remaining states, he'd still end up with more than 1191 pledged delegates.
This means that Paul's campaign may have an important decision to make very, very soon. His goal was to run the entire way as a Republican. But if McCain finishes as strongly on Tuesday as the polls suggest he will, that option will soon disappear. That leaves Paul with three options: (1) drop out of the race; (2) stay in the race even though he can't win it, in order to keep publicizing his excellent political principles, or (3) consider a third party run.
Paul has repeatedly said that he is not considering a third party run, and so long as he had a chance to make something happen within the Republican Party, it made total sense for him to say that. But if McCain does as well as I think he'll do on Tuesday, that reason will be gone.
The only thing I'm pretty sure of is that Paul will not choose option #1. He won't drop out of the race. I have no evidence to back this claim. It's just my gut impression of him as a man. It probably also has something to do with the fact that I've been really hoping he'd pull off a miracle, and I'm not ready to give up on that hope just yet.
Instead, he'll decide between staying in a Republican race he can no longer win and switching his campaign to a third party candidacy. I don't want to even hazard a guess which of these two roads he might take. Adding further confusion is that he also has to give serious consideration to his congressional district race, where there are going to be at least one and possibly more Republican challengers for his seat, who will likely be well-funded by Republican powers-that-be who have long wanted Paul off their radar.
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2008 Walt Thiessen, all rights reserved.
Published: Sunday, February 3, 2008
Last modified: Sunday, February 3, 2008
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One suggestion for RP supporters would be to contribute some funds to Paul's Congressional re-election fund to ensure that no matter what happens on the presidential level Paul will still have some political influence within Congress after the 2008 elections. Personally I plan on waiting until after Tuesday before I divert funds to the Congressional run, but if Paul can't win the nomination after Tuesday then, unless he decides to run as an independent, I figure I would like to at least see him keep his seat. It would be a huge setback for the movement to have Paul not only lose the nomination but to lose his seat as well.
With money in the bank and the best message of any candidate, Ron Paul should stay in the Presidential race.
I still think he'll be able to get his message out. The MSM has done their best to try and snub him so far, but his popularity has been spreading despite the "odds" and attention given to him.
Not winning the Republican spot isn't the end of this Revolution. He has made his point that the Party has lost its way. With all the talk of change, maybe the American people would respond better to a Third Party than they have in the past. Then, Dr. Paul won't have to worry about appealing to the hijacked GOP. His platform won't be tied to that corrupt military machine.
I personally distrust both major parties and I have a feeling that I'm not alone on this. The fight may seem harder if he's on a third party ticket, but think about the last couple of months. We'll still have to be creative about getting his message out. The Blimp, the Nascar, and all of the money bombs weren't a gift from the Republican party. We have to believe that we don't need them to win. It's apparent that the wings of liberty are too big for the GOP tent.
Leaving the GOP race to join one of the existing 3rd parties would probably not be a good idea as far as visibility is concerned.
What are the issues surrounding a write-in candidacy? Could he remain a write-in Republican along with the party nominee? Would it be more difficult to get on all 50 state ballots?
Excellent article to get Ron Paul Revolutionists to start thinking long and hard regarding options. There was an email the other day urging people to give to his Congressional campaign with a goal of raising $440K to help him keep his seat. There are going to be major GOP efforts to unseat and silence the man Reagan campaigned for personally.
I hope he stays to make his voice heard, wins his seat and the Republican Liberty Caucus has some new members sent to him by his supporters across the country. I was going to look for a third-party or Independent to support if he lost but now I'm convinced I will write in his name in November no matter what just to show the importance of LIBERTY.
There is much work to be done between now and 2012 and part of that is to dismantle the history and tradition that allows so much power to be vested in two-parties that really don't care about the people at all, IMHO.
This is a good argument, but I do not agree with it. Ron Paul wss offered some valuable support from the Libertarian Party if he would make himself available as their nominee if he did not win the Republican nomination. That is when he said he would not accept a third party nomination. I think he is right because it would turn a campaign to change the political dialogue into a cultish vanity campaign. I think that doing well all the way to the convention and winning re-election to Congress (assuming he does not win the nomination) will help to build the push for liberty in a was that a third party candidacy will not at this time.
Here in Texas I'm pretty sure they don't accept write-ins.
I would like to see Ron Paul create his own 3rd Party if he doesn't receive the Republican ticket (possibly THE FREE PARTY).
Remember, it's about the money. He's already surpassed the accomplishments of the Naders and Perots from the past.
Plus, being on the Republican ticket hasn't done anything for Keyes. The message of Ron Paul and the overwhelming grassroots funding have gotten him this far. Ron Paul himself has said he was skeptical about running for President. Maybe he will once again be surprised by his success, against all odds, as a 3rd Party candidate.
I'm not saying he's not a true Republican. I'm just saying it's not the Party that makes the Paul. It's the Constitution.
First off, Seth M. I loved your statement " It's apparent that the wings of liberty are too big for the GOP tent. "
My 2 cents worth. When one compares the democratic turnout to the republican turnout one sees there is way more interest on the dem side. Which is going to give them an advantage in a general election. I am of the belief that Ron Paul is the GOP's best chance at winning the White House. It may not seem that way now but If Ron were to get the GOP nod his position on the war and on the economy, once better understood, will get a lot of the left base to vote for Ron not for Let's have more war McCain.
Ron Paul has a really good chance at a 3 party candidacy. I say this because given the organization of his campaign I do not think he would have a problem getting on the ballots of all 50 states. That seems to me to be an obstacle easily surmounted. His biggest problem will be getting his message out and having his message understood.
There you go... that's my pre 1913 two cents worth.
I think the nomination is still well within reach, but I am the "Eternal Optimist", often times to my own detriment. If it did come to a 3rd Party run at least then everyone would know both the Democrat and Republican parties are fighting him. He could really make the argument that he is "the candidate of change" at that point. However, we need this man as President. If not, I hope he can hold on to his congressional seat, as a matter of fact, if he drops out of the race I might go to Texas to campaign for him. I bet a lot of patriots out there would do the same thing if asked. I don't think his Congressional seat is in danger. I hope I get to see the day of a Ron Paul Attorney General, or a Ron Paul Secretary of State, or a Ron Paul Supreme Court Justice? Imagine what an impact that could have!
I have been wondering the same thing Walt. I've heard many different angles to this story, and at least to me, they all have an optimistic road. First, let's assume Dr. Paul will stay in this race all the way until November because of his passionate supporters and fundraising. He even spoke these words.
1. McCain dominates Super Tuesday and essentially wins nomination. Romney and Huckabee drop out of the race. Paul remains. He remains because his supporters are still supporting him. This is beneficial because he will get more (albeit small) publicity still in the Republican party rather than if he went third party on Feb 6th. As you know, third party candidates get ZERO publicity. At least for Paul they could ask "Why are you still running?" And if McCain hasn't won even delegates for the nomination, there is the potential of a McCain/Paul only debate. However this isn't likely since McCain will refuse to participate since the debate will do nothing but hurt him.
2. Romney and Huckabee and hopefully Paul pull some nice upsets and prevent a McCain domination. This leads to a brokered convention.
I predict McCain the warmonger Democrat somehow will win the delegates for the Republican nomination. Paul as he said will not drop out. He will remain a Republican all the way until the convention, when McCain officially becomes the nominee. Then he will announce he will go third party because of his passionate fans, thus he will be on the ballot.
Now, let's assume on Tuesday McCain wins enough delegates to become the nominee. The convention is in, what, August? That means the media will be pounding us with John McCain for EIGHT months. There will be plenty of voters who will grow SICK of him by then. There will be plenty of voters who will realize what mistake they made voting for him.
And, most importantly, Ron Paul supporters will do nothing but keep growing and growing and growing. Eight months of McCain and nonstop growth of Paul supporters could give Paul the most 3rd party votes since, what, President Fillmore?
I am hoping to see a third party run, as many people I know like his ideas but won't vote Republican because of George Bush. Also none of my Ron Paul handouts or signs say Republican so they are still useable if he runs third party.
Some people are just now learning about Ron Paul. A third party run would give us all summer to get the word out to more people who will be looking for an alternative to the main party nominees. Even though Dr. Paul said he would not do this, it is justified by the media blackout and we do have enough money to get on the ballots.
Please note that Ron Paul, as permitted by Texas law, is also running for re-election as Representative for the 14th Congressional District of Texas. He has been running ads on local media in the Houston, for instance. Another candidate is opposing him in the Congressional primary, but chances are good that he will continue to represent the 14th District.
Based on what I know about him, he will continue to be a Republican, and will not run as a third-party candidate for President.
Where are you getting your information. The stats I see are a hodge-podge. And I anticipate they will remain static. This is going to be a brokered convention. If Ron Paul isn't nominated then I will write him in!
MY HUSBAND AND I WILL ALSO WRITE RON PAUL IN IF NECESSARY.
THE POWERS-THAT-BE NEED TO KNOW THAT MILLIONS OF AMERICANS, YOUNG AND OLD, DEMAND CHANGE NOW!! WE'VE HAD ENOUGH OF THE SAME OLD RHETORIC (WHICH IS ALL WE'VE BEEN HEARING FROM MCCAIN AND ROMNEY).
Today's polls show John McCain still poised to win a large majority of the delegates on Tuesday ...
... unless the 500,000 of you can reach out to millions of Republican friends, families and acquaintances to correct their incredibly mistaken notion about McCain's immigration positions.
The Washington Post/ABC News poll this weekend asked likely Republican voters which candidate, "regardless of who you may support," do you "trust most to handle immigration issues."
The answer will shock you:
47% McCain 22% Romney 10% Huckabee 5% Paul
This political illiteracy among Republican voters threatens disastrous consequences. Please share this information widely.
Some open-borders apologists, such as syndicated columnist Ruben Navarrette, say 47% of Republicans like McCain on immigration because they support McCain's idea that the best way to solve illegal immigration is to make nearly all the illegal aliens into legal residents and U.S. citizens.
That is pure wishful thinking on the part of open-borders advocates. Reputable polls for two years have shown that an overhwelming majority of Republicans (and a majority of Independents and Democrats) has opposed every one of McCain's attempts to legalize illegal aliens with an amnesty.
I believe that at least half of those 47% Republicans who express confidence in McCain's immigration plans simply don't know the truth.
And the truth is exceptionally easy to find out.
For two months, McCain answers every immigration question by saying he will "secure the border" and that "I know how to do it."
But records of his past actions show that he has repeatedly voted against funding the border fence, against funding more Border Patrol, against expanding interior immigration agents. About the only time McCain has backed more security on the border is when it is tied to giving an amnesty.
McCain has held border security hostage for years. He has been willing to work for border security only if Americans pay the "ransom" of giving him an amnesty.
But I am willing to accept that McCain is finally serious about securing the border, except that he really hasn't provided a serious, detailed plan for how he will do it.
McCain laid out his Immigration Plan in radio ads in South Carolina: 1. "Secure the borders." 2. Deport around 2 million illegal aliens who have committed felonies. 3. Treat the other 10-18 million illegal aliens with "compassion" by letting them keep their U.S. residency and their American jobs and eventually become citizens.
McCain never expresses compassion for the 23 million working-age Americans without any college who do not currently have a job -- or the millions more Americans whose real wages have stagnated or declined in recent years because their occupations were flooded by foreign labor.
Although the nation already has nearly 40 million foreign workers and dependents, McCain has repeatedly said that we need to import even more. During the last two years, he has pushed various bills that would double and triple immigration.
Every Republican you know needs to get a copy of this email (and the one I sent Saturday night).
The 500,000 of you -- even if every one of you votes (and surely you will if your state is holding a primary) -- are not enough to shift the results of Tuesday's elections unless you multiply your influence by educating at least 10 other voters. And ask each of them to educate at least 5 more.
massive emailing and phone calling, combined with a growing movement of Stop-McCain voices nationwide, is slowing down the McCain bandwagon and showing positive possibilities for Tuesday:
Anti-amnesty Romney has moved ahead of pro-amnesty McCain in California (37%-34%), according to a brand new Reuters/C-SPAN/ Zogby poll.
While most polls show McCain with a wide lead nationwide, the latest overnight Rasmussen poll shows the race much narrower with McCain at 33%, Romney at 29% and Huckabee at 21%.
Romney crushed McCain in the Maine caucuses today, despite both Senators endorsing McCain.
McCain (97) now holds only a narrow lead in delegates over Romney (92), with Huckabee (29) and Paul (6) following (based on the CNN count).
Former Justice Department official Kris Kobach has joined the Romney campaign, providing more assurance of its commitment to driving illegal aliens back home. Attorney Kobach has been a hero around the country assisting localities (such as Hazelton) in enforcing immigration laws.
We need to reach 50 million voters by Tuesday morning.
If millions of misled, misinformed and misguided Republicans hand McCain a giant victory on Tuesday, you can be sure that the generally pro-amnesty media will sing the song of Ruben Navarrette who said this weekend:
" ... depending on how you ask the question and whether you use words such as 'amnesty' or 'earned legalization,' a majority of Americans support the comprehensive approach that McCain proposed. It's starting to look as if the Republican Party's anti-illegal immigration zealots may represent a loud and obnoxious faction of conservative voters, but a small one at that."
I know you won't want to look at headlines on Wednesday morning declaring a victory for Comprehensive Amnesty positions and then wish you had helped all the other Americans who were busy trying to educate Republican voters on Monday.
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2008 Walt Thiessen, all rights reserved.