Mitt Romney is a neighbor with money, John McCain has important endorsments, Ron Paul has a good and ehthusiastic organization, and Mike Huckabee is on the ballot. by rtbohan
(libertarian)
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Some of the towns in Maine caucused on Friday, Most of the others met yesterday. Almost forty percent of the caucuses have yet to meet. But with 69% of the vote in, including the results from the largest cities and counties, the outcome is pretty clear.
Mitt Romney and John McCain came into Maine in a still close struggle for the nomination. With the withdrawal of Fred Thompson after the South Carolina primary and Rudy Giuliani after his loss in the Florida primary only the Libertarian Ron Paul and the religious conservative Mike Huckabee remain to challenge the two front runners.
Mitt Romney, unlike John McCain campaigned in Maine. He had a supposed advantage as a fellow New Englander (although this did not help him in the New Hampshire primary). He ran ads and had an active campaign organization in the state and made full use of it. Romney's strategy from the beginning has been to fight for delegates wherever they are available, rather than concentrating on winning popular majorities in the larger states. This is a sign that no matter what happens this coming Tuesday he is planning on staying in the race through the convention
McCain has won the big state primaries and his campaign is just beginning to return to financial stability. But he is riding a string of impressive primary wins and has the support of most of the national press. He chose not to campaign in Maine, instead relying on his image as the front runner for the nomination, and endorsements for the nomination from Maine's two Republican Senators.
Both Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee are working with smaller campaign budgets, and are choosing their battles carefully at this point. Ron Paul chose to campaign in Maine where he has a strong and well organized group of supporters. His appearances in Maine were important in energizing his followers before the caucuses, and got good coverage in the local media.
Mike Huckabee is relying on his religious conservative base to keep him in the race and has pretty much concentrated his campaign in states where a large group of evangelical Christians give him the best chance of winning, or at least running a good race. He completely ignored the Maine caucuses.
The result of the caucuses so far brings good news for Romney and Paul, a strong warning to McCain. and the expected bad news for Huckabee.
With 69% of the vote in, the state wide totals show Romney with 52% of the vote, McCain with 21% in a close race with Paul at 19%. Huckabee received 3% of the vote, which would seem to show that his base is as narrow as was expected.
There is also some worse news for McCain and better news for Paul in some of the returns. In Androscoggin County, which includes Lewiston, while Romney recived 52% of the vote, Paul 30% and McCain 12 %. In the city of Portland the vote was Romney 48%, Paul 31% amd McCain 20%.
The exact breakdown of the vote has little significance in terms of the convention. Given the method of choosing national delegates, probably all eighteen of the delegates will be awarded to Romney. So his strategy is paying off, but he is going to have to start winning some contested primaries to convince the Republican party he can win an election.
McCain's poor showing means that the national polls and the media support and endorsements are not going to be enough. He is currently leading in the national polls, but this is, in part, the result of a string of victories. Maine shows that futhre victories are not guaranteed.
For Ron Paul, this is his best showing to date and ought to raise him out of the fringe candidate box into which the press has put him. It is the result of a good organization in the state and the growing relevance of his message. Unfortunately, Maine, like Nevada, his second best finish, will not send any Paul delegates to the convention. But his approach to the campaign seems to be the correct one and the next week should see if it pays off in a strong presence at the Convention.
Mike Huckabee, like Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, has had his brief moment as the leader for the Republican nomination and has fallen, like them, into last place. He is planning to win or do well in a limitied number of states this Tuesday to get back toward the top. We must wait to see whether the plan works. In any case, he has vowed to remain in the race until the convention. But then, so did Fred and Rudy.
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You all expected a big win and when you look at the results on yahoo or cnn you think HQ really screwed it up but you are wrong.
The MSM is reporting the results of a NON-BINDING straw poll and they are using those results to GUESS at the number of delegates that each candidate will get. What you need to know is that TWO things happen at the Maine Caucus.
1) A straw poll is taken. All the Republicans in town get together and cast a ballot. This is what the media reports.
2) Delegates are elected to the State Convention held in May.
Yahoo and CNN are only GUESSING on the number of delegates to the State Convention in May for each candidate. They are taking the straw poll results and ASSUMING that the delegates to the state convention will reflect this breakdown. HOWEVER, the delegates are not bound by the straw poll results. You may have a case where Town X voted 90% for Romney but all of the delegates from Town X are RP supporters. I know for a fact that in one town RP got 40% of the straw poll vote but 85% of the delegates.
PLEASE DO NOT BE DISCOURAGED BY THE FAKE DELEGATE COUNT THAT THE MSM PUBLISHES. There is no way for the MSM to know the # of delegates supporting each candidate because delegates do not state their preference until the State Convention in May.
1. no ID"S checked 2. some people did not have to sign in others did 3 During the informational portion. Mccain had 2 supporters speak on his behalf, 2 others tried to speak negatively about Mccain and were shut down. Ron Paul had 5 people speak and others wanted to but they cut the time off. Romney had no one speak initially, then when no one would speak, 2 people spoke because they said they felt they had to since no one else would. 4. It seems as though all 14 people (my wife and I included) who voted for Dr. Paul also became delegates. So I believe we got 14 out of 25 delegates to the state convention.
So the guy who gets half the votes can't even get a supporter speak on his behalf.
Also Ron Paul was the only candidate that had an official campaign presence there. I was also told by a caucus goer that my speech convinced him to vote for Ron Paul so I at least feel my time was well spent
I suspect I am not the only Ron Paul supporter who would vote against Romney or McCain in the general election. Our nation needs change. Retread Republicans won't get the job.
Thanks for the update. Its a shame most States are winner take all on the Republican side. This further illustrates the fact the primaries are more of a dog & pony show controlled by two out of control parties. They all but guarantee a good third-party or Independent candidate won't have the time to catch on by the end of all the two-party commotion. At any rate, its good to see Dr. Paul doing well. I'm going to be very interested to see the MN and CO returns. Also, I'm hoping for a few decent districts in CA as that is a district by district State. Thanks again for the update!!
Does anyone know if and where the final vote count precentages from Maine with 100% precincts reporting can be found?
I've been searching and searching for it but it's just like Louisiana, the information must not have been released.
They say McCain took second place in main but I want to see 100% of the vote not 68%. So very angry, trying to avoid... using naughty... language... darn shoot heck freakin' heck.
Seriously... how in the world is it possible for the MSM to completely eliminate a news story. I mean, nowhere... anywhere will anyone find the results of Maine with 100 percent reporting. Does Rupert Murdoch really have that much power? ... come on... really? Someone please prove me wrong and tell us where we can veiw the full results.
Quirky, long-shot, gadfly candidate Mike Huckabee failed to even reach single digits in this weekend's Maine primary. Finishing with about 1/4 of the of the votes as the closest top-tier candidate, Ron Paul, the Southern Baptist Preacher finished dead last. Since the very first primary in Iowa, which Huckabee won, he has finished in the top 2 only once. While Ron Paul finished 2nd in two primaries, he has a great deal more momentum, online support and money than Huckabee, whose campaign is said to be running on fumes. Ron Paul supporters welcome the evangelical christians who have, until now, been supporting Mike Huckabee but are realizing he can't win.
