An October insider's poll at Real Clear Politics shows that in New Hampshire Ron Paul has already reached the 6% figure and is doing surprisingly well among black Republicans. by Walt Thiessen
(libertarian)
Friday, October 19, 2007
A Real Clear Politics poll shows that presidential candidate Ron Paul of Texas has the support of 6% of all Republican voters in NH, the first in the nation primary state. Even more surprisingly, the poll gave Dr. Paul 22.2% of Black Republican voters in the Granite State, the top score in that category and nearly four points better than frontrunner Mitt Romney.
The sample of 1,082 total respondents surveyed only includes 27 black voters, which is not surprising considering that black Republicans are a very small minority in that state. Nevertheless, Dr. Paul receiving the attention of more than one-fifth of those voters may be an unexpected clarion call that Republican Party operatives will have to watch closely. Black voters played a significant role in the 2000 and 2004 elections, with a number of them voting Republican rather than Democratic, thereby helping to sway the election toward President Bush. Republicans will want to make another strong showing among blacks in 2008, so the possibility that Dr. Paul might be an attractive candidate for black Republicans cannot be ignored. Paul also finished second in the poll behind Romney among voters who identified themselves as being religious voters.
The poll is dated October 2, 2007 and was taken before the news of Paul's $5 million haul in the third quarter was announced. An October 8th usaelectionpolls.com article based on this same data emphasized Paul's strong performance among moderates at 10%, but their article overlooked some of the other interesting information to be found in the data, which I am emphasizing here.
I wonder what effect Paul's increasingly strong fundraising lately will have on the next set of numbers in the next poll? These numbers are the first indicators that the Paul campaign is beginning to take hold in NH, despite the fact that he still hasn't campaigned there as much as other candidates. They put Paul within two points of Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee who are at 8% each, and given John McCain's financial woes it puts McCain's 17% third place position in play as well.
The numbers are significant because traditional polling numbers are the only area so far where Paul has consistently lagged behind the other candidates. He has been extremely successful with straw polls, Internet presence, and "buzz," but until the poll numbers begin to match that, it will remain hard for Paul to be taken seriously by the major media.
The good news is that his numbers are up significantly. Most NH polls in September had Paul at 3%. These newer numbers put Paul solidly outside the margin of error, a significant accomplishment. If his support has indeed doubled in the past month, the next couple of months leading up to the primary could be very interesting indeed. How high can he go?
Did you like this article? If you did, Thumb It! 134
thumbs so far
The views expressed
in this article are those of Walt Thiessen only and
do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates.
Walt Thiessen is solely responsible for the contents
of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated
with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
The polling organization is Insider Advantage, not Real Clear Politics. Real Clear Politics just compiles poll results from various companies. It does no polling of its own.
Posted By: Robert Johnson
Date: 2007-10-19 13:09:41
I travel all over the country for work and have been a fan of Ron Paul for some time now. In the past when would bring his name up, most people would have no idea who I was talking about. However, now when I mention Dr. Paul I find a lot of people already know who he is and are planning on voting for him or think he has a great message.
Ron Paul is definitely gaining momentum and will continue to do so as more people hear his message. If you believe in classic Republican values, Ron Paul is the only candidate you should be looking at.
Posted By: Dan Schleifer
Date: 2007-10-19 13:33:39
How do the polls account for the fact that Ron Paul is big with higher-tech folks, who often no longer have land lines and wouldn't show up in normal telephone polls?
Posted By: Mark Bednarczyk
Date: 2007-10-19 14:49:53
Even in my state of NY, which is terrible for republicans, I find that its real easy to convince people to vote for Ron Paul. He has a very good/big conversion ratio. So the low poll numbers are simply lack of name recognition, as elections get closer, various ads kick in and people start to learn about the candidates, Ron Paul should do extremely well.
Let me give you an example. 2 days ago I was in homedepot, a young person around 25 years of age was helping me. I handed him a Ron Paul slim-jim which I always carry with me, at least a few. He said, oh no, he doesn't vote, he has never voted before in his life. But I gave it to him anyway. And I asked him, if he would like to have double the amount on his paycheck, if he didn't have to pay any taxes on it. He immediately replied, "I could by that car I have been saving for." Then I said, exactly and what if every body in america could suddenly afford to buy a car, what would happen to Detroit where they build American cars. They would need to hire a lot of people paying good salary, who in tern buy more goods. The prosperity in this country would be unbelievable. Then we moved to several other topics, about liberty and limiting the government, saving $1 trillion dollars by cutting back our empire.
By the time we were done, he walked me al the way to the cash register and vigorously shook my hand as if I was the saviour and promissed to look Dr. Paul up and vote for the first time.
Same thing has happened already several times. I call that I hell of a conversion ratio. Its just a matter of name recognition and exposing voters to the message.
Nice report about Ron Paul on NBC this evening... with the qualification that it was the usual mixed bag of weird, misleading sound bites and wrong information. Odd, since there is a very succinct compilation of Dr. Paul's consistent positions on all of the issues on his campaign web site. But still, they like to mis-report that he wants to "abolish" Social Security, abruptly cutting it off for those who played by the Social Security rules and contributed for their entire working lives. Wrong, wrong, wrong. He has said repeatedly that he wants to have a gradual transistion, honoring the government's obligation to those who contributed and allowing young workers the opportunity to opt out of the system and invest in their own retirement fund. Maybe the Paul campaign needs to assign "embedded" translators to the press corps to make sure they get their facts right. ;)
What sorcery has bewitched individuals represented in this poll to have them make Mitt Romney front runner? Mr. Romney delcared in a nationally televised debate that after swearing to uphold the Constituion, he would consult with lawyers to find out what it means. This is not hyperbole, satire or conspiracy theory. That's what the dude said on TV. What does it take to self destruct in politics these days? Somehow I don't think we're in Kansas any more, Toto.
