The Florida Republican Primary--How many will last a week?
The Polls got it right, the Pols got it wrong. Now let's see who makes it through the week. by rtbohan
(libertarian)
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Unlike some of the earlier primaries, the polls in Florida showed themselves accurate. The prediction for the Republicans showed that John McCain and Mitt Romney would each get about thirty percent of the vote. While McCain won by a slightly larger margin than predicted, the difference appears to be within the margin of error. The polls also showed Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee in a battle for third, with between ten and fifteen percent of the votes. Again, Giuliani's margin at this point appears slightly larger than predicted, but not significantly so.
The people who guessed wrong were the politicians, particularly Mayor Giuliani and Governor Romney.
Mayor Giuliani had a good campaign--during 2007. His name recognition, his identification with recovery from9/11 and his New York base made him an early leader in the polls and the early favorite for the Republican nomination. But Mayor Giuliani has shown, since the end of his term as mayor, a disinclination to engage in possibly rough political campaigns. He passed up an opportunity to run against Senator Clinton and a campaign for Governor of New York. As a candidate for President, he did poorly where he did campaign and stayed away from several states altogether. While his time in Florida brought him some fans, people began to view him as a man who could not win. After South Caroina, his suposedly joking request that his supporters vote early lead to a feeling that he could not win votes if people were offered too much of a choice.
Mayor Giuliani based his hope in Florida on the assumption that Romey would defeat McCain in South Carolina and force him out of the race, and that whichever social conservative lost in South Carolina would drop out. He believed that, in Florida, he could defeat Romney in a one on one contest and put himself back into the lead for the nomination.. Tonight a rumor has already begun to spread that he will drop out of the race within a week and endorse John McCain for the nomination. Whether he hopes for some reward from such a move seems to be an open qeustion.
Mitt Romney's plans went astray as well. He planned on defeating McCain in South Carolina, a conservative state, and then getting into Florida where he would knock off Giuliani. In the mean time, he hoped, Thompson would defeat the already cash=poor Huckabee and knock him out of the race. When this plan went astray, he still hoped that he could win over both the sinking Giuliani and McCain in a state with a closed primry where McCain could not count on the votes of Democrats and independents.
Now that the Romney scenario for Florida, like that for South Carolina has been thwarted, people are asking how long Romney will stay in the race. The answer to that would seem to be as long as he can see an outside chance of winning the nominaation. He has plenty of money and has shown a willingness to spend. He will stay in the race until his nomination becomes a mathematical impossibility.
Mike Huckabee does not have plenty of money. He will stay in the race through super Tuesday and work on winning states where his evangelical base is solid rather than compete across the board. After super Tuesday he will have to see where his delegate count and financial resources stand. It has been a long time since Iowa.
Ron Paul is running a campaign of ideas and principles which he believes in. He has money and an army (albeit an undisciplined one) of supporters. He has a new ad campaign which can help get his ideas ourt, although he is still hampered by the lack of coverage in the media. He also appears to have a strategy of concentrating on the smaller states holding their primary next week, and this may pay off.
So now it's off to super Tuesday for those still standing.
Did you like this article? If you did, Thumb It! 2
thumbs so far
The views expressed
in this article are those of rtbohan only and
do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates.
rtbohan is solely responsible for the contents
of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated
with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
