Its not a doomsday scenario for the GOP... as long as they nominate the correct candidate. by Publius
(conservative)
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Here's my breakdown of the election prospects: both parties have basically come down to 2 person races, Obama or Clinton and McCain or Romney. The GOP nominee will be decide tommorow in Florida, but I'm leaning otwards McCain's chances. The Democratic race is still very much up in the air.
So we four scenarios: Obama vs McCain, Obama vs Romney, Clinton vs McCain, and Clinton vs Romney.
McCain vs Obama: This would be the most competitive race. They both take many independents and are generally respected by Americans. Way too close to call.
McCain vs Clinton: McCain's likability and general popularity would be the death nail for a Clinton Ticket in this matchup. McCain by 6.
Romney vs Obama: A blowout waiting to happen. Obama's aura would look attractive to the large anti-mormon vote. Obama by 8.
Romney vs Clinton: A closer race. Both cannidates would have a "hate-base". Romney by 2.
Conclusions: On the simple issue of electablity, the GOP should nominate McCain while the Democrats should nominate Obama.
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Posted By: Walt Thiessen
Date: 2008-01-29 06:53:39
These numbers are delivered to you direct from fantasyland. National polls show that Clinton and McCain are in a dead heat, as are Obama and McCain. Further, Clinton and Obama are clear favorites over the other Republican candidates. So where does Publius get his numbers suggesting that McCain is the front-runner? Answer: his own imagination.
Clearly, Publius is a McCain supporter, but rather than support him (or even evaluate him) based on his merits or demerits on the issues, Publius attempts to turn the McCain candidacy into a horse race, with the idea that a political election is about "our side" vs "their side" and not about the issues themselves. This is precisely how our country was saddled with the worst president in U.S. history during the past two presidential election cycles: George W. Bush.
It's a convenient way to argue for a candidate, because this way you don't have to admit just how flawed your candidate really is. All you have to claim is that "he's better than the other guy," then pat yourself on the back for the "good" you've done. Conservatives love to talk about how evil liberals are, but they rarely look in the mirror and make appropriate adjustments to their own thinking based on the inherent evils in their own thinking.
So the next time you wonder how our country got saddled with the likes of GW Bush, you can thank "good" conservatives like Publius, because it is their methodology that makes presidents like Bush possible.
The Republican base is too fractured to defeat either cadidate right now. Neither Romney nor McCain will turn out any more than 70% of the Republican base, and neither will turn out a sufficient number of independents to defeat a Democrat (McCain is better in that catagory, though).
If Republicans don't find a unifier, they're destined to lose the general election. It's Bob Dole all over again.
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