A breakdown of the upcoming GOP primary in Florida featuring Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Rudy Guiliani, Mike Huckabee and John McCain by J Monroe
(libertarian)
Thursday, January 24, 2008
At 9:00 p.m. tonightwe saw theGOP debate on MSNBC, and it put me to sleep, almost! The general consensus is that this debate is make-or-break for the GOP candidates still left in the game. So before we gallop into Florida next Tuesday, let's do a little handicapping of the candidates. A little background; I was born and raised in South Florida, moved to Atlanta at 24, and I will be the first to tell you that Florida is not the South, they don't have a large Christian base, and there are quite a few RHINOs. Taking all that into consideration, let's begin:
Ron Paul
Since Ron is getting no love from anyone else predicting the Florida outcome, I'll start with him. Honestly, I have no idea where Ron will end up in the polls. He could beat Huckabee, I don't know about Giuliani simply because Rudy's spent the last 5 years in Florida (at least it seems like 5 years). Ron's main goal in Florida should be to simply survive, since after Florida the race will narrow quite a bit. One good thing Ron has going for him is that he's got the dough to hang in there until a few more candidates drop out, and a decent showing in Florida is only going to help.It would be nice to have Florida, but it's not a do-or-die situation.
John McCain
I think McCain is going to have problems in Florida. It is a closed primary, so the swing and independent voters that have put him over the top before won't be in play. McCain has serious image problems amongst conservative Republicans, they're feelings on him range anywhere from distaste to downright hatred. If McCain wins Florida, it will be almost purely on popularity and the fact that he can appeal to RHINOs. From a delegate standpoint, McCain has to win to keep competing against Romney. In a lot of ways this is a must win for McCain, and its not as much of a lock as the media would have you believe.
Mitt Romney
I have to hand it to Mitt, he's running one smart campaign. He pulled his resources out of South Carolina to focus on winning Nevada (which has more delegates than SC), and as far as I know hasn't spent much money in Florida. Even still, he has the national press coverage and is considered the only real threat to McCain in Florida. He has many of the same problems as McCain, but the conservatives don't seem to dislike him as much. He certainly has a chance in Florida, and he has the funds to go on if he doesn't. If he does win, it really puts McCain behind the eight-ball as far as momentum and delegates. Not a must-win for Romney, but it would certainly help him.
Mike Huckabee
Where do I start? His "Baptist preacher man" message is not going to play in Florida, seeing as there is a large Jewish population and it is much more culturally diverse than Iowa and South Carolina. He's on the ropes money-wise after South Carolina, and I don't see him placing better than 4th in Florida. We might finally see the burst of the Huckabubble and he's going to be hard-pressed financially to go on. Look to see Mike exit soon after Florida.
Rudy Giuliani
Rudy gets my vote for stupidest political strategy of the 2008 elections. Putting all your eggs is one basket is a bad idea, especially when you're not a lock to win. This being a closed election is going to hurt him as much as McCain; most of the NY transplants that he appeals to are registered Democrats and I don't see them changing parties just to vote for him in the primary. Conservatives aren't too fond of him, but like Romney, they seem to like him better than McCain. All in all this is Giuliani's last stand, and I don't see any chance of him coming in higher than 3rd place. He'll be exiting stage right with Huckabee shortly after Florida.
My winner? I say McCain will win by a very slim margin, mainly because the Republicans in Florida tend to be very close to the middle of the political spectrum and I don't know how they'll react to Romney. I can see Ron having some traction in Florida, especially since I think Floridians will have a bad reaction to Huckabee.
The views expressed
in this article are those of J Monroe only and
do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates.
J Monroe is solely responsible for the contents
of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated
with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
I think your comments are right on track, Especially Romney runnin a smart campaign. McCain is like a deer in the headlights, Huckster needs to go fishing (but he seems likable, id invite him over for scrumpets). Mr 911 ...well hes kinda creepy dont ya think! Ron paul appeal is lost on Floridians in general, if he can hang in there he may get the vp nod on a Romney ticket. (this debate was a yawner)
Want to comment on
this article? Leave your comment
here. Your email address is required to track your
comment. However, we will neither publish your email
address nor distribute it to other organizations or
persons. The only reason we might use it would be if
we needed to contact you regarding your comment. All
comments are subject to our
terms of use policy.
