Thompson quits bid for President yesterday, Hunter last week. Will Florida break Giuliani? by Bob Nightingale
(libertarian)
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Last week San Diego Congressman Duncan Hunter bowed out after winding up with one delegate from Wyoming, and nearly last place in the rest. Fred Thompson--although had more delegates, according to the CNN scorecard, than Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, and Duncan Hunter combined with 8--didn't have the juice to keep going. His early fundraising was exhausted and so was he, as I illustrated last month. And the GOP voters didn't mistake him for Ronald Reagan. His late entry might have cost him the momentum necessary to compete in this race. It's pretty much academic now.
In this race of attrition, my two touchstones for determining who stays and who goes are still money and grass roots support. Giuliani had a lot of both nearly a year ago. The polling and media attention haven't converted into delegates so far. If Ron Paul gets dismissed by the media regularly as being unviable, what does it say about a candidate who finishes behind Paul in four (MI, SC, NV, IA) out of six states?
We won't know just how much cash he has left until at the end of this month, when the FEC report comes out. Before then will be the Florida primary.
In Florida there are 57 delegates up for grabs in a winner-take-all primary. If he wins, he'll be ahead of McCain and second to Romney. If that happens, no candidate will have 100 delegates. There will be no real front-runner going into Super Tuesday, and five candidates will have no reason to quit before then.
If either McCain, who is polling well recently, or Romney gets the state, either one will be over the 100 delegate mark. That would be the end for Giuliani, who has dismissed earlier state contests and put up Florida as his state. Unfortunately, with all the time he's spent there, the best poll I've seen (Insider Advantage 1/16/08) has him in a statistical tie there, with McCain and Romney.
Huckabee doesn't appear to be campaigning there, and is already looking towards Super Tuesday. The New York Timesreports he's short on cash. Although he got the most votes in Iowa, he hasn't caught fire in subsequent states. He's picked up a few delegates along the way. His southern charm didn't give him the win in South Carolina, although he came within a few percentage points of McCain. Perhaps Thompson's presence siphoned off votes that could have gone to him? With Fred gone, there won't be two southern guys competing for Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia on Feb 5.
So of the five leading Republican candidates, who's most likely to stay and most likely to go?
Mitt Romney has very deep pockets. He could run with millions in debt and write himself another check. Even a second or close third after Feb 5 doesn't mean he's out. He's ahead now, but could be hit hard if McCain wins Florida. But with over 1,000 delegates up for grabs on Feb 5, he's got plenty of wiggle room to make up the deficit.
Ron Paul has deep roots and generous supporters. The Ron Paul revolutionaries raised over $1.8 million on Martin Luther King day--their third largest money bomb to date, and may have a couple more in the wings. Paul's polling routinely at 6% has been trumped lately by finishing in second place in Nevada, with a few hundred votes ahead of McCain. With fewer candidates left in the race, Dr. Paul may get more of the attention from the mainstream media. He's got the cash to keep going, as long as he isn't mathematically eliminated on Feb 5. He might be the only candidate that isn't in debt. He may be stronger than the media is letting on, if he did well in yesterday's Louisiana caucus.
John McCain, having recovered from a financial crisis nearly a year ago, is running a more frugal campaign, and seems to be at the top of many polls. He's recovered from the illegal immigration disaster last year. Enough Republicans are supporting him. Assuming that he's able to pay his bills, he should be able to last beyond Feb 5, as long as he's a close second or better. I can't see him slipping to third.
Mike Huckabee is low on cash. He's got to do well on Feb 5. Even finishing second may not be good enough. If he is third or less after Super Tuesday, he's gone. He doesn't have the wallet to keep going through the summer in a three-man race.
Rudy Giuliani has to win Florida, and strong. Even if he gets Florida, he would have to finish in a strong second or better on Super Tuesday. Again, we'll have to see what the balance sheets say.
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