Topic: Ron Paul
McCain Will Win Nomination, But Lose Election Why John McCain will win the Republican presidential nomination, but lose the general election.by Thomas D. Schwartz
(libertarian)
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Unless Mitt Romney somehow suddenly catches fire with the majority of Republican voters -- an event I don't foresee happening at this late stage of the game, despite the fervent prayers of Hugh Hewitt -- it appears that John McCain will be the eventual Republican nominee.
I expect Duncan Hunter to endorse his fellow Vietnam veteran, now that he is no longer a candidate -- as will Fred Thompson, once he finally and unlamentably brings his terminal campaign to its inevitable conclusion.
Romney, being the faithful Republican loyalist that he is, will support the increasingly obvious nominee -- as will Mike Huckabee, who appears to be jockeying for a vice presidential nomination at this point. After he loses Florida (and he will), Rudy Giuliani also will back McCain.
The path having been cleared for McCain to be the nominee, he will handily win the GOP presidential nomination. But there is still a wildcard in the mix, and his name is Ron Paul.
Paul will never endorse McCain, because they agree on very little. However, McCain -- and the Republican Party establishment -- have made two very important mistakes that will eventually cost him (and the party) the presidential election. How so?
1. McCain has been extremely ugly towards Paul in debates, insulting him, mocking him, and taunting him -- for example, telling Paul during the ABC News debate, "We'll miss you tomorrow," a snide reference to Faux News' excluding the Texas congressman from its debate on the following day. In an earlier debate, McCain accused Paul of the type of "isolationism" that gave rise to Adolf Hitler and led to World War II. Paul has been treated shabbily by the putative "frontrunners" from the beginning, and this increases the likelihood that he will run as an independent presidential candidate.
2. Biting off its nose to spite its face, the Republican establishment has stupidly rallied around Chris Peden, a city councilman who is running against Paul in the Republican primary for Paul's congressional seat. If Peden wins (which is not expected at this point), the only reason remaining for Paul not to run as an independent is removed.
It goes without saying, of course, that Paul will not win the 2008 presidential election. But that's not why he would run. He would run to, paraphrasing the words of Faux News shill Frank Luntz's description of Paul's supporters, "give the middle finger" to the GOP. And he would be successful in doing so -- he has shown that he can peel off an average of five percent or more of Republican voters, as well as earn another one to two percent of independents.
If Paul receives 5-7 percent of the vote in the 2008 election, John McCain will not be the next president of the United States. And all three branches of government will be under Democratic control.
Who will get the blame? Paul, of course. But who will deserve it? McCain himself, the Republican establishment, and the relentless Paul-bashers in the neo-conservative media, from the windbag Rush Limbaugh to the ignorant Sean Hannity to the egomaniacal Neal Boortz and all of the rest of the sorry lot.
And Paul will retire comfortably to his Lake Jackson home and live out the rest of his days as a hero to a small group of conservatives and libertarians, who will work to rebuild the broken Republican Party and make it safe once again for those who believe in a humble foreign policy, small government, and a sound currency.
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Wow! That is certainly a defeatist scenario. I considered writing a separate article in rebuttal, but decided to just briefly outline an equally likely outcome instead. (Permission granted for anyone to steal and embroider on my ideas.)
The ideal situation would find the Warmonger, the Mormon, and the Huckster continuing to pound each other even more senseless than they already are, while our man, RP, continues plugging along gradually gaining ground as the uninformed electorate gains exposure to his ideas.
All four should arrive at the Convention with the Three Mousketeers holding an evenly divided 80-85% of the delegates, and Dr. Paul with the remaining 15-20%.
With any kind of luck, by then the truth of the whole monstrous situation, should have dawned on the citizenry, and they will be communicating their desire to the delgates. That desire should be ... One "bound" ballot for your titular candidate, then a second ballot for freedom, honor, and peace.
I find McCain the most ominous of all choices. Just a sketchy review of bills he has introduced, his platform and his "100 years in Iraq" followed by "or 1,000 or a million" is enough to put a bad taste in anyone's mouth. The current smear campaign against him concerning what he was really doing in Nam as a POW bring up even more questions. Personally, I have researched and believe that there is much truth in the smear although perhaps the records will never be public. Does not matter. The bills he has introduced and his war stance alone show that he is total military industrial complex and certainly no friend to POWs and especially those POWS we hear little about. I am talking about those who came back from Nam and also are now coming home from Iraq. All "prisoners of war" in that they cannot stop the pictures, the cries, the despair of our war mongering with no concern for human collateral damage. They have a nagging sense of guilt. Many know that they were sold a bill of goods and ordered to commit the atrocities.
So is your prognostic a given? I pray not. McCain would usher in the worst scenario possible. (Plus if the smear campaign against him is true, he may well be compromised in that he has been blackmailed about certain films and documents held by other countries and related to that period of time long ago when he was considered the "crown prince" of POWs. His irratic behavior on several occasions has to be questioned. )Look at who Global Research says is behind him. Quite a line-up. Scary stuff. We can't let *that* scenario become a reality.
Henry Kissinger
Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state, covert operative and lifelong Bush ally
Robert “Bud” McFarlane, Reagan/Bush national security adviser, Iran, Contra
William Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard (neocon)
Alexander Haig, Reagan/Bush secretary of state
George Shultz, Reagan/Bush secretary of state, Hoover Institution, Bechtel
Brent Scowcroft, Ford, George H.W. Bush national security adviser
James Woolsey, former CIA director
Lawrence Eagleburger, George H.W. Bush secretary of state
William Ball, Reagan administration Navy secretary
Taking your projection four years farther, the Democrats will not be able to get us out of Iraq. The GOP leadership may have to campaign in 2012 on a message of "leave with dignity", similar to the slogans used during the Vietnam war. Unfortunately, like the Vietnam War, it is going to take thousands of wasted American lives and trillions of dollars before the people and their representatives wake up.
At that point, the Ron Paul Republicans AND Democrats will have to steer this country back to where it should be. Unfortunately I see this as a 20 year campaign.
The only way to stop Islamic Terrorism is by the consensus of Islamic nations themselves--not by the efforts of a predominantly Christian-secular country half way around the world. McCain and the other candidates, save one, don't get it.
Sen. McCain will more then likely loose to the dem candidate in the general election even if Dr. Paul does not run as an independent. I know I would not vote for McCain if he is the Rep candidate.
I would not count Mitt out just yet. Mitt is still in the lead in the deligate count.
Let's see.... Romney has won 3 states out of 5, has twice as many delegates as his nearest competitor, and the majority of the popular vote at this point -- and the way is clear for McCain to take the nomination...?
Perhaps you media people continue to hope that nobody out there will notice that Romney is totally cleaning up -- by focusing only on wee little SC even though Nevada is a far bigger prize. And you'll make inane statements about the necessity of winning South Carolina on the grounds that several past presidents have won that state -- as if correlation equates to causation.... Go ahead.
Voter demographics indicate that Romney has the most educated following of any of the Republican candidates. You don't need to report the facts. We'll look them up on our own...
If Ron Paul isn't elected I'm afraid we won't have to worry about being in Irag or any country for 100 years. The United States won't last eight years. Yes, I think it is that bad. Look how fast the former U.S.S.R crashed and burned.
First off, we don't need predictions of doom and gloom now. We need hope and encouragement. We don't need to be told that we are going to fail.
Is that why Ron Paul is running in this race, Thomas D. Schwartz, to"give the middle finger to the GOP"? Not quite. Do you really think that Ron Paul and his many supporters are doing all this work and spending all this money just to flip the bird at the Republican Party?
No. We are at a place now where the choice is no less than liberty or slavery. We are at a place where we can start to regain or entirely lose our sovereignty at the drop of a hat. And this doesn't even take into account the oncoming disastrous plans for a North American Union. (God help us.)
Don't ever doubt the seriousness of this election, the predicament that we're in now, and the dead seriousness of the Ron Paul bid for presidency.
It may really be our last hope for freedom. Let's not kill it.
Posted By: Scott Weisman
Date: 2008-01-21 07:04:32
For those haven't noticed, the Iowa and Nevada caucuses results were strictly advisory. What really counted were the delegates elected to attend the county and state conventions. The scuttlebut is that a significant number of delegates from Nevada are solid Paul supporters. The same is likely for Iowa as well. So Romney is likely doing worse, and Paul better, than current analysis contends. The poll numbers for Romney do give him momemtum that Paul doesn't have, to be sure, but the second place Nevada finish doesn't hurt.
I agree that Romney is doing much better than people give him credit for, and considering the list of "viable" options for presidency, he may be our best choice.
What I find intriguing is the possibility of NY Mayor Bloomberg entering the race as well. We could find ourself in a position where there are four candidates who all have a fair amount of support running for president of the United States. He has plenty of money of his own he seems willing to spend. Now, that would really be interesting (and unfortunate, depending on who your candidate is!)
Here, here, Maggie - that's EXACTLY why we're here. So he'll win and help us save this country. If too many people say "He won't win", then of course he won't win - they've pre-determined the outcome. Deadly and destructive - don't mimic the corrupt media.
People think there's really isn't a two party system but there is - the One World Globalists and the Constitutionalists.
Ron Paul's message is growing every day, we just need to keep it growing, to pass it on, don't give any power to defeat. We can't afford a drop of that.
There are other senarios that need to be considered before writing off Dr. Paul's presidential bid. First, there is the possibility that Bloomberg jumps into the race to save it from being another Hobson's choice election. That would siphon votes from the Democrat candidate. The impact of the economy cannot help to become a bigger issue. Dr. Paul offers the best cure for what is ailing America's economy and more voters will come to recognize that fact.
Third, there is a kind of wild card with the McCain effort. He could lose his temper in front of a camera. Or he could not fare very well in Florida, or he could have easily have another health problem arise like the cancer that distorts the side of his jaw and make him appear less robust as a candidate. So, there are unforecastable events that can put a quick end to McCain's current momentum.
Dr. Paul may be considering staying in the race after the GOP convention and doing so on the Constitutional Party ticket. If he does that, then the choice of his running mate could make all the difference.
Given the primary vote momentum is moving away from a Paul nomination..... something RADICAL........ strategically implemented NOW by the campaign....... would/should be in order. Something that would produce (excuse the expression) "shock and awe" in public/political/media circles.
Now! Before the Florida primary..... any thoughts?
I mean...why not? What is there to lose?
How about announcing a running mate....... break the rules, the "traditions" that keep furthering the public comatose!!!!
What else could he do....... how about calling for Ron Paul actually LEADING a day of Nationwide demonstration......
He announces suddenly during an MSM interview......
"I AM TODAY, ANNOUNCING THAT JANUARY 30 WILL BE THE START OF A HUNGER STRIKE...... LED BY MYSELF, TO CALL ATTENTION TO THE UNCONSTITUTIONAL STATE OF AFFAIRS, THE SECRECIES OF OUR GOVERNMENT AND THE EROSION OF CIVIL LIBERTIES UNDER THE PATRIOT ACT........ I INVITE ALL AMERICANS TO JOIN ME ON THIS DAY......etc....
Kind of an MLK / Ghandi thing....... he leads the charge... we follow......
Jim Condit Jr. of Citizens for a Fair Vote Count has generated this 10 minute long thought provoking You Tube video which took him 12 hours to create, in an effort to attempt to bring a very sobering message to Ron Paul:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REfVcc-4Zrk
Please view it, and please mass forward it: We all need Dr. Paul to embrace the issue of Election Fraud, because none of us are in fact even WITNESSING an actual ELECTION right now, what we're witnessing is a carefully concocted ILLUSION intended to make us THINK an election is "going on" when our sad reality is that the Bilderberg Group selected our next dictator last summer at their meeting in Ottawa- and this whole circus we're witnessing, complete with massive black box voting election fraud is nothing more than a hoax, a charade, so that come November, when the next dictator is inserted, we'll all THINK we just "elected" someone, that way we'll be pacified "good slaves" and won't rebel. The farce called an "election" is nothing more than a CIA containment effort, aided and abetted heavily by Operation Mockingbird control of the mass media: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird I was a Ron Paul supporter til he publicly declared that "No Fraud" had occurred in the NH Primary. Yeah, RIGHT, SURE!! (What BS!!) I have friends on the ground in NH right now monitoring the recount. Black ops are all over the place in NH right now tampering with ballot boxes- see www.blackboxvoting.org report from 1/17. A friend of mine surveilled the parking lot of the State Annex Building where the ballots are stored in an unsecured area not in a vault, and there were people going in and out of the building at 11 pm on a saturday night.
Ron Paul needs to Take Back-the-GOP from the warmongering, corporate owned jackals that have hijacked the party. The Republicans of today probably have Reagan spinning in his grave. The nation is on a dangerous path to financial destitution and loss of status around the globe. It simply boggles my mind mind when the caucus voters of South Carolina voted for McCain. McCain pushed for amnesty and wants to be in Iraq for 100 year. Huckabee wants to change the constitution to line-up with the Bible and Romney is simply another man trying to buy his way into office. I pray that none of these snakes manages to slither into the oval office. Ron Paul is a vote for integrity, decency and true fiscal conservatism.
The nomination is NOT decided yet, although McCain is leading so far. Read Dr. Paul's strategy his website: brokered convention. Duncan Hunter already endorsed Huckabee, and Thompson has not endorsed yet...some of his supporters will vote for Paul (possibly the most), regardless if he endorses someone else. McCain is not trusted by a significant part of the GOP (he is seen as a Democrat, very correctly...with military focus...worst combination!). A lot so far has to do with name-recognition, many people have simply not heard about Paul or given the wrong impression about him. McCain would have to debate Paul one to one at some time, at the convention at the latest... and most of other's support may go for Paul, even though their "leaders" may endorse McCain.
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