Jphm McCain's supporters have hailed his victory in the S.C.primary, and believe it makes him a front runner. Not so fast, my friends by rtbohan
(libertarian)
Sunday, January 20, 2008
John McCain's victory over Mike Huckabeein the S.C. Republican primary yesterday has been hailed by both his supporters and the press. There is no doubt that a victory in South Carolina, where his loss to George W. Bush knocked him out of contention for the nomination in 2000, is important to his continuing this year's campaign. But there is more to the story. And not much of it bode's well for Senator McCain.
McCain defeated Governor Huckabee with the votes of 121, 722 South Carolinians (34% of those voting). In his loss to George W. Bush om tje 2000 primary he received 237.888 vptes (42% of the total). If, as David Broder says in his column, McCaim got a " different reception in South Carolina", it wasn't as supportive.
Of course, the total vote in this year's primary was two hundred twelve thousand smaller than the turnout in 2000. This can be attributed to the rain and snow which greeted primary voters this year, or to despair of winning the general election among Republicans, or to a dislike of making more than an either/or choice on the part of voters. But the fact remains that more than one hundred fifteen thousand voters who went to the polls to vote for John McCain in 2000 either thought it not worthwhile to vote this year, or voted for somebody else.
In addition, there is the fact that in 2000 the social conservatives voted pretty solidly against McCain. Governor Huckabee and Senator Thompson between them received over 165,000 votes. There is no doubt that if either of these candidates were not on the ballot this year, the other would have beaten McCain just as Bush did, and for the same reason. Governor Romney, who finished fourth, got more than 55,000 votes, but there is no reason to believe that if he were not on the ballot all, or even most, of those votes would have gone to McCain.
So John McCain won the primary in South Carolina. It will get him more publicity in the press, reinvigorate his campaign organization, and bring him the donations his campaign so desperately needs. It will keep him in the race through the Florida primary, and probably even through Super Tuesday. If he can achieve another victoty, he may keep going until the convention. That additional victory may be hard to come by.
So John McCain has won South Carolina. He should enjoy his triumph. It may be his last one.
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This is the only site that I know of where winning is losing and losing is winning. It is kind of funny with the Ron Paul crowd. I think that McCain was a lock 8 years ago, he just did so much BS in that time frame to criticize and seperate himself from fellow Centrist George W. Bush, most Republicans didn't like that. Yeah, he has a chance but if my experience in South Carolina tells me anything, it is that the rest of the country does not think this way.
