Topic: Ron Paul
Ron Paul Has Ability To Win Primaries Republican candidate for President Dr. Ron Paul in on track to win the nations primaries, and is in the best position to win on Feb 5th. Analysis and strategy are outlined as to what his volunteers need to do to win.by J.T. (A man standing in the gap) Furnish
(libertarian)
Friday, January 18, 2008
I am writing the article to show the Ron Paul supporters, of whom I am one, just how Ron Paul can win the primaries.
WHERE RON PAUL STANDS
First, we need some analysis. Dr. Paul is in need of a 1st-3rd place finish in as many states as possible. Recent data shows that Ron Paul is in 5th or 6th place. He did receive a 4th place finish in Michigan on Tuesday. Dr. Paul needs a "few" first place finishes, my friends, so his delegate number goes up. He also needs a few 2nd and 3rd place finishes as well. Can this happen? Can someone who is literally still an unknown by voters and potential voters move up that quickly in the polls? Can someone that is still being ignored by the media and treated as a plague win? Yes, it can happen, and it needs to happen on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008.
Ron Paul may well finish 6th in South Carolina and 6th in Florida. It would be unfortunate, although Ron Paul could place 3rd or 4th. No one really knows how he will place in Nevada. There still is time, though, to make a difference in these three states. If what is outlined below is followed.
WHAT IS AHEAD
With so many states voting, it will be impossible for any one candidate to spend significant time in any one state. Each candidate will be choosing a strategy to win. Romney will try to target almost every state. Giuliani and McCain will target states that have more moderates. Thompson and Huckabee will target more southern states. Each candidate has a republican demographic they are trying to get to vote for them. Since no candidate can spend significant time in all of the February 5th states, some states may have 1 stop by each candidate, if that. Some states may not get visited at all. Ron Paul will more than likely go to states that have a message of freedom and the constitution will resonate with the voters. He will probably target states that have many "conservatives".
February 5th will be a test of organization, get out to vote efforts, grassroots/volunteer support, and in some cases, which candidate has the most money. Here is what each candidate can use to get votes in a state:
1) Depend on name recognition 2) Depend on the media 3) Advertise with radio, TV, mailers 4) Go to the state and hold rallies 5) Depend on their volunteers to get the vote out and advertise them.
A candidate may use more than one but the one that has all of these running efficiently will get more votes than those who don’t.
CASE IN POINT-Giuliani and Thompson skipped Michigan, they placed behind Ron Paul. They were depending on name recognition and media coverage to get the votes. They did not have a grassroots effort in Michigan, so while they may have the first two, that only will go so far. A grassroots effort, and advertising helped him get 4th place.
The fundraising numbers have not been released yet for all of the Republican campaigns, so we don’t have a clue how much money each campaign has to spend. Giuliani won’t go to every February 5th state, neither will Huckabee or Thompson. Ron Paul, Romney, and McCain might; however, they won’t be able to spend much time in each state. As of today there are 18 days until February 5th. There are around 20 states to campaign in, plus those held before February 5th.
Case in point-Ron Paul received his largest percentage of votes in Iowa. He had volunteers out working the state, but so did all of the other campaigns except Giuliani. Ron Paul did win Jefferson County in Iowa because his meetup volunteers performed the grassroots efforts. Grassroots efforts done right will get the people to the polls.
Maine will vote on February 1 and the following states will vote on February 5th: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah. West Virginia will be holding their state convention on this day to select some of the delegates.
Notice that California and Illinois are on February 5th. These are large states. One month later the last big state, Texas, will hold their primary on March 4th. Unless there is a landslide for one candidate that has already won 1st place, and gets 1st again in both South Carolina and Florida, there won’t be a front runner and all of these states on February 5th are up for grabs. My prediction is that going into Super Tuesday there won’t be a front runner.
HOW RON PAUL CAN WIN
How can Ron Paul win though? One word - GOTV. This acronym stands for Get Out The Vote. Right now Ron Paul needs a good showing in all February 5th states. He needs a first place finish in a few, a second and third place finish in a few more. Which ones will it be? Who knows? That is up to you.
Most Republicans don’t know what Ron Paul stands for. It is my belief that if they did they would consider voting for him over the other candidates. What will propel Ron Paul to victory is to have every person that supports Ron Paul to sign up as a precinct leader on the ronpaul2008.com website. The site will then give you instructions on what to do.
As a political consultant for many years, I used a GOTV strategy that won 88% of the time. While I don’t know exactly what the Ron Paul campaign wants their volunteers to do, there is only so much they can ask them to do. Gauging their organization in Iowa, I believe that what I am about to recommend should not go against what the campaign is trying to do, but supplement it.
First you need to register to vote and then sign up as a precinct leader on the RP08 site. Read through what the campaign wants you to do. First and foremost, do what they ask you to do. Second, take my recommendations into consideration and then apply them, too. I always had my candidates go door-to-door and talk with the voters. Ron Paul can’t go to every neighborhood in all 20 states, but his volunteers can. Each volunteer needs to develop a plan depending on the size of the precinct they live in or want to work in. If you have a large precinct you may need a person to help you, or you may just target registered Republicans.
You find out who the registered Republicans are by calling the Ron Paul HQ and telling them you want to go door-to-door in your precinct. (Sign up as a leader first). They should have a list for you. Figure out who you are going to talk to. I would purchase some Ron Paul Slim Jims, and maybe a t-shirt to wear. Go door-to-door, keeping track of who was home and who wasn’t.
Those that are home, talk to them and ask who they support and why. Most conversations won’t last more than a few minutes. However, the important thing is to identify who all of the Ron Paul supports are, who needs more information and who is not a supporter. Document all of this on the list of names.
Walking a normal precinct may take 4 total hours, since many people won’t be home. Leave a slim jim on their door if they are registered republican or an independent. You can buy different Ron Paul slim jims that talk about different issues. Someone may be only interested in taxes or gun rights. Give them the appropriate Slim Jim and quickly explain Dr. Paul’s stand on the issue, which you can get from the Slim Jim. Annotate that issue that makes them motivated to vote. If you find a Ron Paul supporter, see if they would like to help volunteer like you are. Some will and some won’t. MAKE SURE that you stick to the issues the voter wants to talk about. You may be concerned about taxes, but the voter might be concerned about abortion. Stick to the topics the voter wants to discuss…that’s called staying on message. You can lose a voter quicker than quick if you start talking about issues they are not concerned about. Don’t argue or debate a person. You have more voters to contact and are wasting your time. Leave them with a Slim Jim and thank them for their time.
I personally used to go back a second time and try and catch all of those people who were undecided and that were not home the first time. You may only get 20% of the people home the first time, so going around again and narrowing who you talk to will shorten your time down and make you more efficient.The entire point is Ron Paul can’t get to every neighborhood, but his volunteers can. If a volunteer takes a precinct and "owns" it, he can let those voters know who Ron Paul is. No other campaign has the volunteers to do this. They are depending on name recognition, media coverage, rallies or advertising in most of the states. If the Ron Paul supporters do this, they are building his name recognition, advertising him, and finding out who is a supporter and who is not.
Something that we did before an election is to call all of the supporters of our candidate and ask them if they needed any help in getting to the polls on Election Day. Most will say no, but a few might need a ride. We thanked them, and told them that the candidate appreciated their vote and we look forward to seeing them on Election Day. This served as a way to tell them: 1) that we care, 2) the candidate appreciates their vote, 3) and that we expect to see them on Election Day. On Election Day we would call all of our identified supporters and verify that they voted. We simply asked if they had voted yet. If not, we told them the importance of the election. We also told them that the candidate really needs their vote today, so he can get in office to take care of whatever issue they were concerned about. We then followed up and asked if they needed a ride to the polls. If they did, either I or another person would pick them up. The important thing here is that the voter is contacted. Each republican voter at a minimum should be contacted. They should receive literature about Ron Paul, and identified as a supporter or someone that’s undecided or a non-supporter.
All supporters should be contacted on Election Day to ensure max Ron Paul votes. Those that were undecided can be contacted too by phone to make one last push in convincing them to vote for Ron Paul. You might be able to convince some of the undecided’s to vote for Ron Paul by calling them on Election Day.
If each volunteer does this than Ron Paul can win a lot of states. He can use his money and his time to advertise and go to the most crucial states. No other campaign can mount this type of grassroots effort. Ron Paul is the only one that has the volunteers. He needs the volunteers to do this since he can’t depend on name recognition or media coverage. Each of us needs to step up to the plate and do our part. First register to vote as a Republican, then go to the Ron Paul website and sign up as a precinct leader. Read through the leader material on the RP site and then put together your strategy for Ron Paul to win your precinct.
HOME MUCH SACRIFICE?
My figures show that if 1 person can spend 1 hour per day in a precinct going door-to-door or making phone calls than Ron Paul can win that precinct. That’s time going door-to-door 2-3 times to catch as many voters as possible, calling them to make sure they are voting, and then calling again on Election Day. The amount of time spent will vary depending on precinct, but an hour or two each day will help. Even if those in the Feb 5th states did this effectively, Ron Paul can win. Most of us spend more than one hour a day online. Those in states like South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and Maine will vote before February5th and have less time to get this done. Those in states after February 5th can spend more time trying to ensure that every voter whether, Republican or Independent, knows about Ron Paul. Those later states also have the ability to register new people to vote as well.
Really it is not a lot of sacrifice. How will the voters know who Ron Paul is and what he stands for if you don’t tell them? Sign waving and parades build name recognition, but it doesn’t answer the voter’s questions about the issues. Only grassroots efforts in each precinct can get the results Ron Paul needs. This is the most effective and efficient activity that any supporter can do.
This is how an unknown candidate that the media does not pay attention to can win each and every race. Iowa is a case in point. If volunteers would have done in every precinct what those in Jefferson County did then Ron Paul could have won Iowa or at least placed 2nd or 3rd. He did win one county where his volunteers did get out the vote. All that is being asked of you is an hour each day and a couple of hours on Election Day. Truthfully, it is little sacrifice. By committing an hour each day you will be helping Ron Paul win precinct by precinct.
DELEGATES
For all of those go getters out there, spend some time figuring out how to become a national delegate. The Ron Paul website shows what most of the delegate process is in most states. Remember in the end, it’s the candidate with 50% +1 of the delegates that becomes the nominee.
Ron Paul can’t win without us and this strategy. We have to take the battle to the streets. Our leader that we have chosen has asked us to step up to the plate - will we? If Ron Paul looses every state on February 5th, it is our fault for not spreading the message of freedom to each home. Is the Revolution dead? Can you have a Revolution without sacrifice? The time is NOW. Let all of us who will be free stand up and take our message of freedom and a new tomorrow to each and every home. My next article will cover some analysis of precinct size and how few people we each have to influence.
J T Furnish
This article may be used without my permission; however, please site this website as the location and me as the author. Please place comments and general questions below. If you need to contact me about this strategy please e-mail furnishgroup@yahoo.com.
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Very good, spoken by an expert: democracy in action and individual freem - the philosophy of Ron paul - means that each supporter should work on grassroots level, e.g. not leave it to professional high paid consultants, who are like the special interest groups in Washington (perhaps they may be useful when we get more coverage.
I would just like to add by saying it is important to be very organised, the precint leaders should get education on how to do it well (learn from those with experience), be kind, honest, dynamic and positive (give a good perception of Ron Paul) and should offer "more" than others, in non-political, practical way, like offering/helping to pick up people on election day and showing them the way.
Indeed as you said, Ron Paul has something for everyone, and one should specify the needs and thought of the voter (this way also those Republicans that were and still are for the Iraq war, for instance, can be convinced to vote for Ron Paul, by say stressing fiscal conservatism.
Thanks for the comments. Ron Paul does have something for everyone. We have to taylor our message to each voter and be more than willing to help them go and vote and even offer to help them get an absentee ballot if they wan't one. This truly how RP can and will win the nomination.
Posted By: James Stevenson
Date: 2008-01-18 04:02:00
Ron Paul will save our country! Please google Ron Paul and also check out the voting records of him and the person you have already decided to vote for. I guarantee it will change your mind and if it doesn't then dont vote cause you don't hold enough intellect to do so.
The media has said that this election will be about a candidate that has the power to "unite" our very divided country while simultaneously criticizing RP supporters for being "democrats who just like his war message" , "fringe rightist conservatives", etc, etc. Though this is obviously just another attempt to marginalize his campaign the truth is that he IS the ONLY candidate that can unite this country! Why?? Because the ONLY thing that really unites our country is our constitution. It is one of the most important documents in our world's history.
This has to be our message. Whether you agree with Paul's economics, or war position, or immigration policy or whatever, the constituion is our focus. It is something that you can discuss truthfully looking any voter in the eye knowing that whatever our politics are, we are still historically bonded together by our constitution. This is something that every American will tell you that they are proud of, it is the only thing that we all have in common. Emphasize this point because Ron Paul is the only candidate that has probably even read this important document.
See freedom of fascism at freedomoffascism.com by Arron Russo regarless of who you are for, that may make some sense as to why media is not including Dr. Paul but it only makes sense to vote for Ron Paul's delegates. I am part of a Tennessee Ron Paul support group. I am almost sure Dr. Paul has got Tennessee. 39 delegates
vote Dr. Ron Paul 08
Thanks,
L.S. - TN.
Another idea: Apart from the normal leaflets, print some basic (more detailed, like wikipedia article Ron Paul on the politicla issues, out for those that do not have internet at home, burn some CD's of Dr. Pauls debates and youtube videos and/put put on a memory stick. A very good site that will help with specific info (also to download DVD) is: http://www.ronpaulreveres.com
For traditional conservative and Christian Republicans, refer to Richard Viquerie's www.ultimateronpaul.com (he is in same tradition as Dr. Paul and sure he will officially endorse him later/soon)
Also: target the homeschoolers and mention that ONLY Dr. Paul address them specifically (do research).
Economy will be the BIG issue (apart from Iraq war), can also refer to professional references of Dr. Paul.
It would be good if we can get more Republican(ex) congressmen(women) and senators - like Barry Goldwater - to campaign for Dr. Paul in specific states.
Here's what we're handing out to our precinct with a slim jim:
Hi!
We’re Matthew and Tammy. We are precinct leaders for this area of Long Beach. Ron Paul’s campaign, much like his government would be, is very decentralized.Rather than just drop in a ‘slim jim’ with information about Ron Paul, we thought we’d let you know what drew us to him.
For us, it’s the message of liberty… not just personal liberty, or economic liberty, but both. The liberty to keep the civil rights guaranteed to us by the constitution, and the liberty to keep the fruits of our labor. That’s right, no more income tax.
The government is out of control in size and centralization. A Ron Paul presidency will give control back to the people. Many people look to Roe V Wade as the ‘issue to vote on.’ But think of this… anything that is universally allowed at the federal level can just as easily be universally denied. What Ron Paul would do, though he is pro-life himself, is give the controls back to the states, where they belong. This is true for many other issues (Gay marriage, gun laws… etc) and it makes the most sense. The more local things are, the more of a say you have, and that’s how the founders of our country intended it.
It should be noted that many people in the media are deeming Dr. Paul a ‘long-shot.’ However, in total votes Ron Paul is comfortably in fourth, edging out both Rudy and Thompson. Lets not let the media decide our president again. We’re tired of going to the polls in the general election and choosing between the lesser of two evils. We’re excited to vote for someone who actually stands for something!
If you have any questions, or would like to get involved, please don’t hesitate to e-mail us at (our email). The campaign web site is www.ronpaul2008.com and offers a lot of valuable information.
We hope you’ll join us, your neighbors, in this great revolution. It’s the Ron Paul Revolution, and it’s happening. We hope you’ll be a part of it!
Posted By: Canadian for Ron Paul
Date: 2008-01-18 10:19:34
An observation from the Canadian sidelines, the Ron Paul Grassroots Movement should be the rallying cry for two generations of American voters too young to remember or participate in the marches of the sixties.
This current generation is looking for the defining moment or movement that separates them from the past. This is it. Go back and look how the press handled the peace marches back then. Seem familiar?
Let history show that the next American generation did stand up, and made changes in their government as profound as the movements of the sixties.
why is no one talking about democrats the antiwar democrats cannot end the war by voting for thier party and are desperate for an anti war candidate jefferson county won by not focusing on repbulicans the shrunk base of neocon supporters but by going to the people who want to stop the war that is how they won anyone who has time to get voters switched needs to do the dems too!!
2nd. Having said that, I believe that you need to make it a little more clear to the reader that: They should not waste their time doing sign waving, and Talking about conspiracy theories to a prospective voter is a waste of time and will turn them away from RP.
3rd. Articles like this are good, but an article from a RP supporter will have small effect compared to an article from the campaign itself. The RP campaign needs to make it clear to all of their volunteers that they are not fulfilling their role as volunteers to the campaign because only roughly 9,000 people have signed up to run their precinct out of the 180,000 that is being asked.
My own comments:
I don't know why the vast majority of RP supporters think that doing sign waving, bake sales, and small demonstrations are going to be effective at any more than name recognition. I mean I know that most of the volunteers are not really politcal minded, BUT MAN, get a clue one time. No campaign can win with those tactics no matter how correct the candidate is on subjects. You are right when you say that if RP loses it will be the volunteers fault.
Lastly, and this one goes out to all the CONSPIRACY THEORIST (CT's) out there who support RP. If you really want RP to win then quit talking about the conspiracy theories. No one wants to hear about them. If you want to talk about them then talk to you friends and not voters. It's turning them away from voting for RP. You know what funny about most of the CT's out there? Most of them aren't registered to vote anyways and are just running their mouths without helping the campaign in any way.
The Chicago Cubs and the Chicago Blackhawks have a better chance of winning the World Series and Stanley Cup respectively then Ron Paul has of winning the election. Sorry, but we libertarians are a minority, and Wrong Paul is not pro-freedom or anti-statist enough for me. We need an Atheist Pro-Liberty Anti-Statist anti Intelligent Design Candidate before I am happy. It is too bad Christopher Hitchens (author of GodIsNotGreat) can't run for president. Until we have that, this world will not be safe. Avoid WW3 by taking out statism before it gets strong enough to police the world.
Well written and very useful for the campaign.
Just one point. Most often only registered Republican voters are targeted. But apart from Independents and Democrats, where some potential is known to exist, there is a vast desert of non-voters comprising more than half of the electorate (which exceeds 90% as far as most primaries are concerned). Who are these non-voters? That's a vast field and most of them are disgruntled citizens who have long ignored politics. Only a candidate like Ron Paul can cause these non-voters to registered Republican and vote.
I think we're just wishing upon a star at this point. I don't think he's got a chance. It's a shame. The American people are too dumbed down to vote for him as we have already seen in the last four primaries. Not only that, but the MSM's smear of him as a racist has worked. I have met intelligent African Americans that refuse to vote for him because they believe he is too "cozy" with white supremecists.
Regardless, I'm going to donate my scarce resources again during the MLK money bomb. I'd bet that it doesn't do nearly as well as the last two as many of us can see the writing on the wall. Sorry to be negative but I'm a realist.
With the exception of Fred Thompson (occasionally), Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and your favorite, Dr. Ron Paul (always), few of the candidates seem to take the US Constitution seriously anymore. Our economy and our Constitution are both imploding. This should give us pause or should it? Perhaps we should scrap it and start anew? After all, once in office our elected representative must swear to uphold the US (not foreign) Constitution for all people. This includes even their most hated adversaries. People at the extremes defend it because according to this document they deserve equal protection under the law just like everyone else. I support Ron Paul. I love people of all races, religions and sexualities. I happen to be straight and black if you must know. The Ron Paul supporters I know love their country passionately. They are not racist, sexist pigs with tin foil hats or 911 truthers. They are hard working, decent wonderful people who volunteer in their community and take the time to educate themselves on the issues. They are a threat to the establishment because they think outside the box. Please consider voting for Ron Paul. Thank you for your time.
Thanks for all of the comments. Some of you have said the Ron Paul does not have a chance because....(fill in the blank). However, anyone can win the Republican nomination if they have the right political mix.
Ron Paul has the money and the people. Everything comes down to the message. No matter how much the electorate is dumbed down, we as the Ron Paul supporters have to get the correct message to each person. We have to communicate that message correctly to each person. This takes people, getting involved and communicating the message one person at a time.
Ideally we should not target just Republicans, but also Independants, Democrats, and non-voters. Can Ron Paul win? Yes he can, If and only if his supporters start communicating the message the voters want to hear, then making sure they vote on election day.
My next article will show how easy it can be to get enough votes to win first place in each state...again, it takes volunteers.
Posted By: mike montagne
Date: 2008-01-21 13:20:02
In my opinion, the Paul campaign is squandering its best chance to win the election by failing to define and debate what sound money is. Google "parable perfect economy" for the arguments on which Paul can and would succeed.
Unfortunately, our efforts are being stymied by Austrian School adherents within the Paul camp who can neither defend their assertions or refute our postulate that there is one and one only solution.
We need to get our candidate on track on this issue. Mathematically Perfected Economy can win this campaign!
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