Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Ron Paul Beats Fred and Rudy in Michigan Paul's 4th Place Finish is a sign to the lesser candidates to make a move or get out.by Bob Nightingale
(libertarian)
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Watching the Michigan returns come in on CNN and Fox News, it was clear that Ron Paul wasn't going to get more than about 7% and finish in fourth placed after Romney, McCain, and Huckabee. For a candidate that wasn't worthy to get an invitation to the Fox News debate before the New Hampshire primary, he finished ahead of two other candidates who did.
In a previous article, I mentioned that there is a Ron Paul Mendoza Line, where a candidate must at least beat Ron Paul, or should consider getting out. As of tonight, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Duncan Hunter have all fallen below that line. Unlike Paul, with his fanatical grassroots supporters, these candidates do not have backers who will raise millions of dollars in a single day to keep a second-place or worse finish going. Even Mike Huckabee ought to be bleeding at the edges of his campaign coffers by now. We'll know at the end of the month when the FEC reports come out. Paul and Romney are the only ones with the cash to keep going beyond Feb 5--even if they don't win another state by then.
Before Super Tuesday, there are just a few states to go. These candidates need to win one by then, or may have to go home.
Thompson is probably putting all his eggs in a South Carolina basket. He has stiff competition from Huckabee. It will be a battle between who is most Southern. Will it be the preacher-governor from Arkansas or the attorney-actor-Senator from Tennessee? At USAElectionPolls.com, John McCain has been surging there lately. But Huckabee has polled ahead of Thompson consistently since November.
Giuliani has two states where he can make a last stand: Nevada and Florida. Giuliani pulled his office out of Michigan in a frugal move when it became clear that he couldn't win the state. It may be paying off. In Florida, he's in a four-way tie with the top three finishers from Michigan. But Thompson and Paul aren't far behind. He had Nevada to himself, until McCain's recent surge.
Although Duncan Hunter is still on ballots, he really needs to decide where to make a graceful exit. He has to figure out when to write the last campaign paycheck or apply for matching funds. There are just so many stops he can make on frequent flyer miles. He made his point with building the fence in San Diego. He's still pushing his trade message, which the other candidates need to incorporate. "Mirror Trade" seems much more fair than the current system. He might want to negotiate a cabinet position for an endorsement.
So where does that put Ron Paul? He needs to make some serious staff changes. He's got to get his message out to convert "normal" voters to his point of view. Fast. His rabid internet minions will follow him up to and through the gates of hell--even the atheists. He's got to get beyond some of us economic nerds who let out a war whoop every time he advocates getting rid of the Federal Reserve and the IRS. Huckabee's Michigan concession speech last night came right out of Ron Paul's press releases. When the candidates want to look economically conservative, they cherry pick Paul's platform. Maybe James Carville is available for a consult? His recent free advice seems spot-on with the three GOP winners so far. Ron Paul's got to place at least third in a state or two before Feb. 5.
We'll see who's left standing Feb 6. It will be a long fight to the convention by those who can win a few states on Super Tuesday, and have some cash on hand.
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The views expressed in this
article are those of Bob Nightingale only and do not represent
the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Bob Nightingale is
solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an
employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
James Kirchick's head may explode at any moment as it seems that Giuliani continues to lose to this non-existent candidate in spite of Kirchick's continued efforts at TNR!
How dare voters keep voting for he-who-does-not-exist over America's most facist mayor!! Grrr!
Primary and caucus results just tell you who the frontrunner is in each state. The delegate distribution is determined several weeks later in state conventions.
Even so, Ron Paul beats Giuliani and Hunter here too.
Any candidate that is qualified for at least one delegate should be on the chart. Ron Paul won Jefferson County in the Iowa Caucus--only one of three candidate to come in first in any county.
Perhaps the New York Times wants a New York candidate's face badly? I think it has something to do with paper sales.
I agree with most of your assesment of what needs to happen. I noticed that on the RP site we have 8077 leaders signed up to volunteer on the RP campaign. While you might be right that he needs to make staff changes, the staff won't be able to hit every voter in America. To convert normal voters to his point of view that takes the RP supporters signing up on the RP site and volunteering as a leader. The volunteers that really want to see RP win will be out talking to the "normal" voters, not the staff.
While I consider this a positive article for Ron Paul and supporters. Its somewhat a backhanded compliment.
I don't feel fanatical or implied "not" normal voters is a true description of Ron Paul supporters. How about Constitionalists, or voters that align themselves with our founding fathers. Or voters who have not sold out on the principals that have built this country. We are resilient because we do our homework before we give our vote.
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