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columnist: The Indepublicrat

Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
NH Fallout: Crying All The Way To The Oval Office

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Lessons from New Hampshire: polls are meaningless, the pundits are full of crap, and sometimes a presidential hopeful just needs a good cry.

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by The Indepublicrat
(Centrist)
Wednesday, January 9, 2008

At this still-early point in the election campaign we've seen three races in one party and two in the other--and each has had a different winner:

• Iowa Democrats went for Obama
• New Hampshire Democrats went for Clinton
• Iowa Republicans went for Huckabee
• Wyoming Republicans went for Romney
• New Hampshire Republicans went for McCain

Please allow the Indepublicrat a moment to be amused by the prospect of having a different winner in each state so far. What's next, John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani in South Carolina? Bill Richardson and Ron Paul in Michigan? Gravel and Hunter in Nevada? Anything goes!

Okay, enough of that.

The Republican race is legitimately up for grabs with no clear frontrunner. In addition to the three winners so far, Giuliani's gambit of focusing on "big states" hasn't even kicked in yet. If he wins Florida, he just might go on to become the first President of the United Big States of America.

On the Democratic side, the Indepublican has previously emphasized that the focus should be on delegate counts rather than just the popular vote, and Hillary Clinton's overwhelming support among superdelegates continues to be a huge obstacle for Barak Obama or John Edwards to overcome. With a padding of over a hundred delegates, Obama's convincing win in Iowa only chipped into that lead by the tiniest bit.

But with the momentum from Iowa, it seemed for a few days as if Obama would be able to steamroll to victory no matter how many superdelegates Clinton managed to wrangle. Obama's lead mounted all week in all major New Hampshire polls, and into the double-digits in some of them. On the ground, Clinton seemed to have been pushed to the edge of desperation. She not only went negative but used her husband as an attack dog, and rumors were swirling of a major staffing purge in her campaign office. The last straw seemed to come at an event where an overstressed Clinton broke down in a most unpresidential fit of tears.

"Stick a fork in her, she's done!" pronounced the pundits on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, but as the precincts reported in, Clinton leapt into the lead and held it all night long. According to CNN's exit polling, women broke heavily for Clinton in New Hampshire, in contrast to Iowa where Obama had the support of men and women alike. Many of those New Hampshire women made up their minds in the last 48 hours and were positively influenced by the humanizing sight of seeing Hillary Clinton show actual human emotions. Turns out that crying jag was the best thing she could have done!

And yet the media is hyping a "big win" for Clinton, ignoring the fact there is often little or no effective difference in a primary between first place and a strong second. Clinton and Obama both came away with 9 delegates in New Hampshire while Edwards picked up 4 delegates for coming in a distant third. On the Republican side, where there are fewer delegates up for grabs, McCain's win was good for 7 delegates, Romney picked up 4, and Huckabee ended up with 1. All other candidates tied for last place, prompting Bill Richardson to drop out of the Democratic race--and then there were five.

So here are the lessons we can take from New Hampshire:

• Do not, do not, DO NOT ever trust the polls. They're an arbitrary and entirely meaningless snapshot with a dangerous Oracle Effect--often changing the vote rather than just predicting it. Plus they enable the media to trot out countless "horserace" stories instead of focusing on the issues.
• Pundits are full of crap. When they don't know something, they'll just make it up as they go along. Even when they're totally wrong, there's no accountability.
• Sometimes a candidate just needs a good cry.

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2008 The Indepublicrat, all rights reserved.
Published: Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Last modified: Wednesday, January 9, 2008

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