Topic: Ron Paul
What New Hampshire Results Mean for Ron Paul An analysis of the McCain victory in New Hampshire and what the results mean for the candidacy of Dr. Ron Paul.by Jake Morphonios
(Libertarian)
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
In the 2000 presidential election cycle I worked for Steve Forbes as the regional campaign manager for North Carolina. I escorted Mr. Forbes to the South Carolina Republican Debate and had the opportunity to meet John McCain outside in a secure area as he was being interviewed on his Straight Talk Express campaign bus. I paid close attention to McCain throughout the election both before and after Mr. Forbes dropped out of the contest. I culled a few facts from that time period that are still relevant today.
McCain is a short man, 5’ 7" to be exact. Okay. That’s not important. However, the fact that McCain gets easily peeved is important. Once McCain takes a stance, even when he knows he is wrong, his ego will not allow him to back down when challenged. I observed this in a Larry King Live interview between McCain, Bush and Keyes. McCain was taken to task for a series of negative attack ads and became quite terse in defense of his actions. This projection of ego didn’t go unnoticed by voters. Presently, McCain is in a position of having taken some very unpopular positions on subjects such as campaign finance reform and immigration. When challenged on these issued McCain, predictably, will return to sanctimonious posturing and sink his campaign once again.
It should be remembered that as of a month ago, popular wisdom said that the McCain run was over. His campaign structure saw a rash of firings and resignations. He is essentially broke. While McCain is out there today trumpeting himself as the new "comeback kid", he knows that this isn’t true. McCain knew that he would carry New Hampshire without having to do much to secure the victory. The demographics of New Hampshire are confusing to many political analysts because of the high number of "undeclared" voters, often incorrectly dubbed "independents". New Hampshire voters in 2000 helped McCain wallop George W. Bush with a 19 point spread victory. Undeclared and Independent are two different things. New Hampshire typically votes just like any other state. In 2000 they voted for McCain because of his strong military credentials. In 2008, exit polls again demonstrate that nearly 50% of McCain voters chose him specifically because of his firm pro-war stance. A McCain victory in New Hampshire was a foregone conclusion. Ron Paul supporters were incorrect in their estimation that New Hampshire was inordinately favorable for a Ron Paul surprise.
Yet, the idea that "Mac is back" is a false hope for McCain supporters. McCain does not enjoy wide popularity in most other states. He will fare well, perhaps even winning Michigan and South Carolina. But Mitt Romney remains the man to beat. McCain’s funding is essentially spent and will not likely continue well past Super Tuesday. The only variable that may alter this eventuality is the media. Should the media turn McCain into their new star and keep him in the spotlight to the exclusion of most other candidates between now and Super Tuesday, McCain may be able to keep his campaign alive.
Enter Ron Paul.
With the victory of McCain nearly guaranteed, we need to analyze the remaining race statistics. Ron Paul spanked Fred Thompson, placing well ahead of Thompson who placed third in Iowa. Next, Paul placed less than 1 per percentage point away from Rudy Guiliani. Rudolph’s camp knew he couldn’t win, so they used the effective strategy of downplaying his loss by claiming that the candidate didn’t make any real effort in New Hampshire. The media, however, today exposed some interesting facts about Guiliani’s efforts in New Hampshire. Guiliani not only made more campaign appearances in New Hampshire than any other candidate but he spent more money in the state than all over candidates except for Mitt Romney. That Ron Paul virtually tied Guiliani is an incredible political feat and the Paulites of New Hampshire should be wildly applauded. Had it not been for Paul activists, the candidate would have finished around Hunter’s 1%.
Ron Paul trailed the third place winner, Mike Huckabee, by only 3 percentage points! That is extremely significant. Paul is not out of the race. Focusing on "5th place" finishes only brings people down. This strategist chooses not to emphasize which spot Ron Paul is finishing in, but instead focuses on how well he is doing in the race compared to other candidates. Dr. Paul and his supporters are making history. He has staying power. Ron Paul’s message of personal liberty and constitutional government is taking hold. Now is not the time to shrink from the battle. This is a time of celebration over our incredible success. We are truly changing the political debate. Ron Paul’s ideas are now being "stolen" by other candidates. That is not a bad thing. When other candidates are compelled to change their positions to Ron Paul’s it means that we are having great success.
Our campaign is very much alive and energized. We are accomplishing our goals. More fighting is needed. Let us roll up our sleeves and get back to work for our families, for our nation and for our champion of freedom, Ron Paul.
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2008 Jake Morphonios, all rights reserved.
Published: Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Last modified: Wednesday, January 9, 2008
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Even a blind person should be able to understand the spin of this article. Keywords like "Spanked Fred Thompson" in the New Hampshire election certainly is part of it. Why? Because Fred Thompson "spanked" Ron Paul in Iowa.
When you have a candidate getting less than 10% of the vote, I'm not sure you can look underneath and say "So and so got less! It is a victory!"
Ron Paul will probably not place high in every state primary or caucus across the entire country.
If Ron Paul really wanted to his views justice, he'd jump on the Libertarian party right now and run as a Libertarian.
His supporters would still be there, and while he'd be certain to lose the election... he should be able to get enough support to open up some ballot access and federal campaign money for his fellow libertarians to spread his same message.
The Republican primaries are not going well no matter how you spin it. Staying in 5th place will ensure he remains dead last as other candidates drop out in the near future.
Spinny,
You misunderstand what the Revolution is all about. Sure, we are running a candidate to win the Presidency. But this movement isn't about Ron Paul alone. We are in this fight to change the political debate. Ross Perot did that in 1992. If I were placing a bet on a horse to win a race, Ron Paul would not be my pick. But this is not a horse race - it is a fight to save our Republic. All of your naysaying and finger pointing will not deter us from our mission to restore responsible foreign policy and monetary policy to our system of government.
This movement is bigger than Ron Paul, me, and most certainly it is bigger than you.
Jake Morphonios
Reviewing the incredible results of New Hampshire, only one thing is for certain: it is time for Ron Paul to begin deconstructing the Obama platform, piece by piece. I just read Obama's issues page and it reads like a socialist's Christmas list. Apparently the independents of New Hampshire were unhappy with the gifts they received last month and demand Papa Fed make up the shortfall.
Also, I sincerely hope that every Republican voter in New Hampshire who stood behind McCain has some kin in the active duty deployed military lest I begin referring to New Hampshire as the Hypocrisy or Die State.
I plan to make another donation to the revolution, this is a modern day revolution. Thank God he gave us Ron Paul. I'm sick and tired of a media that thinks they can dictate to us what we should think. Ron Pauls character and patriotism towers over all the candidates. I am so proud of the Americans who are seeing past the propagada. Lets prove to them that the spirit of our founding fathers is not dead. This is just a snow ball right now, but a snow ball can start an avalanche. And the political weather is just about right to let these elitists know who's in charge of this country. I like your article - Jake
Spinny McSpinster should understand that the Ron Paul Revolution will stay in the Republican Race as long as possible to secure 15% of the Republican vote before breaking away and running 3rd party against hopefully a weak candidate like McInsane or Romney. Although that would assure a Dem victory in the general, this would permanently cripple the Republican Party until it does exactly what we demand, which is to give us control of the RNC and vetting process for members of Congress, etc.
Pro-war people need not be alarmed. RP's domestic policies are what is important. Do not say "Nothing is important if you die by a nuke terrorist attack". That is no excuse for neocons controlling us via regulatory laws on the Internet and assuming every American male is a sex offender until proven otherwise, etc.
The Bushies abused their power, especially for me when that jerk signed the IMBRA law that forces American men to be background checked before being allowed to say hello to a foreign woman on online dating websites.
Neocons simply do not understand that every new regulatory law made enemies of the first order.
Jake is spot on, the Ron Paul campaign is alive and will keep right on rolling down the track. It's not about the man but about the "message"...and the message is powerful. The other candidates are running a "popularity contest"..they have no truthful message. Ron Paul's "War on Spending via Big Government" is something no one else can touch. Plus the economy and some media, [see Glen Beck's recent interview] will start connecting the dots, i.e. the US, via deficit spending is now bankrupt. So let's hang in there and keep Ron Paul out in front of the people! He's looking more energized every day.
One more thing: the verification procedure for this comment made me promise to "uphold people's rights" by not posting the "personal contact information" of others in the comment.
But one of the more outrageous ways the neocons are destroying our freedom is precisely by violating the "Right to Assemble" in stopping 3rd parties from releasing other's contact information to the public.
This can and WILL be used against us. Since when, if the others want the contact info to be release, is it a problem to do so? And understand that it is logistically impossible to get official permission to do so either. How do you prove that anyway? What if we were talking about an underground group of patriots during a civil war?
And what exactly is "personal contact info"? Cell phone numbers cost $5 to change. Email addresses can be created within 30 seconds. It would take a lot for stalkers to really knuckle down on a person and ruin their lives or ruin the use of that number or email address. At worse, someone might get a day or two of annoying contact if hostile people got the information.
I would advise the site owner to think very hard about how politically correct it is to vilify the extremely important process of third parties giving personal contact info.
This is going through the courts right now with the IMBRA law. Pro-feminist neocons in the Bush Administration Justice Department and Homeland Security are saying that dating websites cannot give out the personal contact info of foreign women, who WANT the info given out to everyone and anyone, before the foreign woman signs an affidavit that she read the personal background check of each man who wants to say hello to her.
This is the only reason why I support Ron Paul. I am pro-war and would vote for Thompson otherwise. But my civil liberties trump the war and Thompson would probably keep the current set of neocons in their jobs (he would not fire most of the Bushies in government).
Many supports are pushing for a New Hampshire vote recount after 2 counties were caught giving 0 votes for Paul when in fact voters stepped up and swore they voted for him there.
Don't trust these eletronic machines they gave us Bush in Iowa in 2004 only through severe fraud
Its time to demand a recount. Put all the other states on notice that fraud will not be tolerated.
It could not have been better said than what I read from a poster above; this is not about Ron Paul, this is about saving our republic from the Industrial Empire and Imperialistic Nation we have become. We are going bankrupt, we are involved in another Vietnam, we are tangling with Iran, who deny the recent accusations on the water. The government owns you. Think about that.
This is not merely about a single candidate, it is about restoring our country to its potential. Following the advice of our forefathers, sound economic policies, free market enterprise and trading and diplomacy with the rest of the world. We are the most powerful nation on earth, and have managed to make more enemies than we have ever had.
I wonder what people expect to gain by voting for anyone else other than Ron Paul ? I can tell you, the same old song and dance. Debt, Goverment control in your lives, War and a dollar that will just keep shrinking.
Think logically and be practical. This is not only for you, but your childrens future. Unless of of course you like the governments medlling in your lives, you like war, you like taxes, you like deficits.
This is a real spin piece for sure. Not a word written to suggest that the 'results' touted and 'analysed' here are the result of massive vote fraud. And that, dear readers is the Thumb's down for this article.
Address the real issue or just be quiet. The MSM is taking care of this area quite well. It's their stock and trade.
Call me crazy,but when observing the "vote talley" its interesting if not peculiar where they all remain "within" their (suspected) pre-determined %?. That is to say as the reports come it, they always appear like 1 (I) for you 1(I) for (whomever), 2 for you 2(II) for the predesignate. Could it be, though the votes are hand seperated, that when they are tabulated by the Dibold computer?, there just may be something a bit askew?
Don’t discount Ron Paul’s influence in this election. Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter made all the other candidates acknowledge the importance to the American people of immigration reform and border security despite gaining only 1% of the vote.
Posted By: Robert Meservy
Date: 2008-01-10 09:29:00
While, I do agree that Ron Paul's campaign is about getting the message out I disagree that he doesn't stand a chance. The problem is that people merely are not aware of his message, and we're fixing that. The fact that RP's campaign didn't spend all that much effort in NH yet pulled 8% is a great start.
Not to mention that three, read that, THREE districts have been found to have been involved in vote faud against Ron Paul and it becomes obvious that the establishment considers him a threat.
All that remains now is to continue spreading the message, get the word out that once again our political system is failing us voters and be vigilent with our votes. Let the government know that we will not stand for this. And let's be vigilent about our own votes when it comes time to vote in our respective primaries.
The fact that Obama's campaign also had problems with vote fraud makes this all the easier. Now let's win this thing!
Ron is the 1st man I have seen in years to actually get excited about the constitution as well as our Country. I am never involved in politics and never ad a passion. But, with him there is HOPE! Go Ron Paul 2008!
Does anyone know who Derrick Cope is? He is the former nascar unknown that on the last corner of the last lap of the Daytona 500 went around the famous Dale Earnhardt who incurred a flat tire to win the biggest prize in Nascar. The point is he wasn't supposed to win against all the stars however he stayed in the race. Every now and then fate works in strange ways. GO RON PAUL!!!!
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2008 Jake Morphonios, all rights reserved.