Election Day Final Polling Predictions
Here is a quick update on the latest November polling numbers going into the wait for the popular election day returns on the four main presidential candidates Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr and independent Ralph Nader. Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney was included only in the CNN/Opinion Research poll. Ron Paul is included in the Democracy Corps as the standard bearer for the Constitution Party but he always got zero percent except for the asterisk on the last poll (Dr. Paul is on the ballot in Montana and Louisiana).
| Poll | Dates Conducted | Obama | McCain | Nader | Barr | McKinney |
| GWU Battleground | released Nov 4, 2008 | 50.2 | 48.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | NA |
| Democracy Corps | Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2008 | 51 | 44 | 2 | 1 | NA |
| Ipsos/McClatchy (LV) | Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2008 | 53 | 46 | 1 | 0 | NA |
| CNN/Opinion Research | Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2008 | 53 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Pew Research Center | Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 200 | 52 | 46 | 1 | 1 | NA |
Other poll results taken from The Polling Report.
Third Party Polling Results| 97% Reporting | 2008 VOTE % | 2008 VOTE TOTALS | 2004 VOTE % | 2004 VOTE TOTALS |
| BARR | 0.40% | 490,594 | 0.32% | 397,265 |
| NADER | 0.54% | 660,501 | 0.38% | 463,655 |
| McKINNEY | 0.1% | 143,511 | 0.10% | 119,859 |
| BALDWIN | 0.14% | 175,694 | 0.12% | 143,630 |
| STATE (poll closing order) (% reporting) | BARR (Votes/%) | Libertarian 2004 | NADER | Nader 2004 | McKINNEY | Green 2004 | BALDWIN | Constitution 2004 |
| Guam 100% | 212 0.65% | 67 0.20% | Not on the ballot | 196 | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot |
| Indiana 99% | 29,186 1% | 18,058 0.73% | Write-in | 1,328 0.05% | Write-in | 102 0.00% | Write-in | Not on the ballot |
| Kentucky 100% | 5,892 0% | 2,619 0.15% | 15,322 1% | 8,856 0.49% | Write-in | Not on the ballot | 4,621 0% | 2,213 0.12% |
| Georgia 99% | 28,420 1% | 18,387 0.56% | Write-in | 2,231 0.07% | Write-in | 228 0.01% | Write-in | 580 0.02% |
| South Carolina 99% | 7,455 0% | 3,608 0.22% | 5,331 0% | 5,520 0.34% | 5,504 0% | 1,488 0.09% | 6,615 0% | 5,317 0.33% |
| Vermont 97% | 964 0% | 2,989 1% | 2,498 1% | 4,494 1.44% | Write-in | Not on the ballot | 496 0% | Not on the ballot |
| Virginia 99% | 10,568 0% | 11,032 0.34% | 10,814 0% | 2,393 0.07% | 2,306 0% | 104 0.00% | 7,185 0% | 10,161 0.32% |
| Ohio 98% | 18,190 0% | 14,676 0.26% | 38,879 1% | Not on the ballot | 7,780 0% | 192 0.00% | 12,573 0% | 11,939 0.21% |
| West Virginia 100% | Not on the ballot | 1,405 0.19% | 7,173 1% | 4,063 0.54% | 2,355 0% | 5 0.00% | 2,458 0% | 82 0.01% |
| Alabama 99% | 4,983 0% | 3,529 0.19% | 6,609 0% | 6,701 0.36% | Write-in | Not on the ballot | 4,300 0% | 1,994 0.11% |
| Connecticut 98% | Not on the ballot | 3,367 0.21% | 17,665 1% | 12,969 0.82% | Write-in | 9,564 0.61% | Write-in | 1,543 0.10% |
| Delaware 100% | 1,108 0% | 586 0.16% | 2,401 1% | 2,153 0.57% | 385 0% | 250 0.07% | 626 0% | 289 0.08% |
| DC 100% | Write-in | 502 0.22% | 851 0% | 1,485 0.65% | 498 0% | 737 0.32% | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot |
| Florida 99% | 16,587 0% | 11,996 0.16% | 27,154 0% | 32,971 0.43% | 2,758 0% | 3,917 0.05% | 7,673 0% | 6,626 0.09% |
| Illinois 99% | 19,061 0% | 32,442 0.62% | 30,417 1% | 3,571 0.07% | 11,629 0% | 241 0.00% | 8,106 0% | 440 0.01% |
| Maine 92% | Write-in | 1,965 0.27% | 9,972 1% | 8,069 1.09% | 2,675 0% | 2,936 0.40% | Write-in | 735 0.10% |
| Maryland 99% | 8,903 0% | 6,094 0.26% | 13,291 1% | 11,854 0.50% | 4,237 0% | 3,632 0.15% | 3,415 0% | 3,421 0.14% |
| Massachusetts 99% | 12,989 0% | 15,022 0.52% | 28,511 1% | 4,806 0.17% | 6,520 0% | 10,623 0.36% | 5,023 0% | Not on the ballot |
| Mississippi 99% | 2,416 0% | 1,793 0.16% | 3,719 0% | 3,177 0.28% | 1,086 0% | 1,073 0.09% | 2,441 0% | 1,759 0.15% |
| Missouri 100% | 11,355 0% | 9,831 0.36% | 17,769 1% | 1,294 0.05% | Write-in | Not on the ballot | 8,181 0% | 5,355 0.20% |
| New Hampshire 93% | 1,982 0% | 372 0.05% | 3,183 0% | 4,479 0.66% | Write-in | Not on the ballot | Write-in | 161 0.02% |
| New Jersey 99% | 8,017 0% | 4,514 0.12% | 20,254 1% | 19,418 0.54% | 3,459 0% | 1,807 0.05% | 4,724 0% | 2,750 0.08% |
| Oklahoma | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot |
| Pennsylvania 99% | 19,907 0% | 21,185 0.37% | 41,479 1% | 2,656 0.05% | Write-in | 6,319 0.11% | Write-in | 6,318 0.11% |
| Tennessee 100% | 8,487 0% | 4,866 0.20% | 11,523 0% | 8,992 0.37% | 2,489 0% | 33 0.00% | 8,163 0% | 2,570 0.11% |
| Arkansas 98% | 4,704 0% | 2,352 0.22% | 12,804 1% | 6,171 0.58% | 3,434 0% | 1,488 0.14% | 3,998 0% | 2,083 0.20% |
| North Carolina 100% | 25,349 1% | 11,731 0.34% | Write-in | 1,805 0.05% | Write-in | 108 0.00% | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot |
| Arizona 99% | 10,394 1% | 11,856 0.59% | 9,172 0% | 2,773 0.14% | 2,778 0% | 138 0.01% | Write-in | Not on the ballot |
| Colorado | 9,398 0% | 7,664 0.36% | 11,580 1% | 12,718 0.60% | 2,390 0% | 1,591 0.07% | 5,437 0% | 2,562 0.12% |
| Kansas 100% | 6,564 1% | 4,013 0.34% | 10,242 1% | 9,348 0.79% | Write-in | 33 0.00% | 4,051 0% | 2,899 0.24% |
| Louisiana 100% | Not on the ballot | 2,781 0.14% | 6,991 0% | 7,032 0.36% | 9,184 0% | 1,276 0.07% | 2,579 0% | 5,203 0.27% |
| Michigan 100% | 23,962 0% | 10,552 0.22% | 33,356 1% | 24,035 0.50% | 9,123 0% | 5,325 0.11% | 14,973 0% | 4,980 0.10% |
| Minnesota 100% | 9,176 0% | 4,639 0.16% | 30,155 1% | 18,683 0.66% | 5,210 0% | 4,408 0.16% | 6,787 0% | 3,074 0.11% |
| Nebraska 99% | 2,626 0% | 2,041 0.26% | 5,212 1% | 5,698 0.73% | 982 0% | 978 0.13% | 2,902 0% | 1,314 0.17% |
| New Mexico 100% | 2,325 0% | 2,382 0.31% | 5,059 1% | 4,053 0.54% | 1,525 0% | 1,226 0.16% | 1,537 0% | 771 0.10% |
| New York 99% | 22,520 0% | 11,607 0.16% | 37,975 1% | 99,873 1.35% | 12,015 0% | 87 0.00% | Write-in | 207 0.00% |
| Rhode Island 98% | 1,313 0% | 907 0.21% | 4,402 1% | 4,651 1.06% | 707 0% | 1,333 0.30% | 626 0% | 339 0.08% |
| South Dakota 100% | 1,835 0% | 964 0.25% | 4,267 1% | 4,320 1.11% | Not on the ballot | Not on the ballot | 1,895 1% | 1,103 0.28% |
| Texas 100% | 56,398 1% | 38,787 0.52% | Write-in | 9,159 0.12% | Write-in | 1,014 0.01% | Write-in | 1,636 0.02% |
| Wisconsin 100% | 8,795 0% | 6,464 0.22% | 17,402 1% | 16,390 0.55% | 4,234 0% | 2,661 0.09% | 5,022 0% | 869 0.03% |
| Wyoming 100% | 1,557 1% | 2,465 1% | 2,429 1% | 2,741 1.13% | Write-in | Not on the ballot | 1,172 0% | 631 0.26% |
| Iowa 100% | 4,619 0% | 2,992 0.20% | 7,992 1% | 5,973 0.40% | 1,500 0% | 1,141 0.08% | 4,427 0% | 1,304 0.09% |
| Montana 100% | 1,341 0% | 1,733 0.38% | 3,649 1% | 6,168 1.37% | Write-in | 996 0.22% | Write-in | 1,764 0.39% |
| Nevada 100% | 4,258 0% | 3,176 0.38% | 6,140 1% | 4,838 0.58% | 1,408 0% | 853 0.10% | 3,197 0% | 1,152 0.14% |
| Utah 100% | 6,461 1% | 3,375 0.36% | 7,644 1% | 11,305 1.22% | 908 0% | 39 0.00% | 11,131 1% | 6,841 0.74% |
| California 97% | 50,336 0% | 50,165 0.40% | 79,672 1% | 19,218 0.15% | 28,045 0% | 40,771 0.33% | Write-in | 26,645 0.21% |
| Hawaii 100% | 1,226 0% | 1,737 0.40% | 3,461 1% | Not on the ballot | 894 0% | 1,737 0.40% | 4,725 1% | Not on the ballot |
| Idaho 100% | 3,649 1% | 3,844 0.64% | 7,096 1% | 1,115 0.19% | 58 0.01% | 1,682 1% | 3,084 0.52% | |
| North Dakota 100% | 1,064 0% | 851 0.27% | 4,234 1% | 3,756 1.20% | Write-in | Not on the ballot | 1,053 0% | 514 0.16% |
| Oregon 72% | 6,952 0% | 7,260 0.40% | 13,040 1% | Not on the ballot | 3,151 0% | 5,315 0.29% | 5,561 0% | 5,257 0.29% |
| Washington 65% | 4,618 0% | 11,955 0.42% | 16,888 1% | 23,283 0.81% | 2,163 0% | 2,974 0.10% | 5,416 0% | 3,922 0.14% |
| Alaska 99% | 1,090 0% | 1,675 0.54% | 2,677 1% | 5,069 1.62% | Write-in | 1,058 0.34% | 1,223 1% | 2,092 0.67% |
©2008 Bradley Jansen, all rights reserved. You must have written permission from the author in order to republish this work.
Published: Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Last modified: Thursday, November 6, 2008
The views expressed in this article are those of Bradley Jansen only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Bradley Jansen is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
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Reader Comments:
Posted By: Chris Baker
Date: 2008-11-04 21:56:25
Thank you for compling the numbers. It shows you are honest.
Your cheerleading for Barr was a complete embarrassment to yourself. If you are like most libertarians, I am also confident that you will learn nothing from this entire experience.