As a journalist who has conducted at least one public opinion poll, I can offer some insight into why national political polls are virtually useless for predicting the outcome of elections, especially for Libertarians.
The margin of error of any poll is approximately three or four percent, depending on the size of the sample. Until Libertarian presidential candidates start scoring above five percent, the margin of error of polling makes polls useless to Libertarians. That's why very few polls are including Bob Barr's name late in the 2008 election.
But polls are also not very good at predicting the outcome of the two-party system's electoral battles. First of all, the margin of error makes polls pointless unless there is at least a 10- to 12-point separation between candidates. Anything less simply indicates a virtual tie.
Most pollsters ask leading and limited questions designed to provide an either-or response. Many pollsters use push polling, asking questions like: "Is Obama too inexperienced to lead the country?" These questions are designed to produce a desired answer, and cannot be relied upon to provide true information.
Many news organizations that are part of corporations selling advertising intentionally paint the election as very close, virtually tied, whether that it is true or not. To the media, a close election is more interesting and suspenseful than an obviously pending landslide. Close elections bring more advertising revenue to the corporations that own news programs and polls, and their coverage tends to make close elections a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Other polling organizations are obviously and blatantly biased, Fox News Channel and Zogby being the best examples. These organizations favor socially conservative, pro-war Republicans and refuse to even acknowledge libertarian-leaning Republicans such as Ron Paul. There are also biased pollsters who favor Democrats, such as CBS News.
If you're really trying to figure out who's going to win the 2008 election, you'll have to look at state-by-state polls to get any indication at all. Also pay attention to fundraising, media coverage and the demeanor of the candidates. Are they acting desperate or confident?
The media know who's going to win, because they create the positive or negative conditions that determine the winner. But they won't tell you early on because they make more money if they don't.
I predict that Barack Obama will win the election because he has raised more money, gotten more positive media coverage and is leading in the electorally important states of the East and West Coasts. McCain is popular in the numerous but sparsely populated states of the Midwest that carry few Electoral College votes. Barr will probably exceed Libertarian Ed Clark's 1980 one-percent finish, but I doubt that Barr will break two percent.
If Obama does not win, it will almost certainly be because of racism. Americans are not sophisticated enough to evaluate the issues; all they know is one candidate is black and speaks well and the other candidate is old but white. Americans have not abandoned racism; it has been pushed to a back burner, but is kept on a continuous simmer.
The Bradley Effect (white voters rejecting a black candidate at the very last minute) is the only thing that could stop Obama's ascension to the White House.
Personally, I'm not looking forward to an Obama administration or a McCain administration. Both will be more expensive; both will diminish our rights; both will almost certainly start new wars and prolong old ones.
It's time for the Barr Effect - people rejecting the corrupt two-party system at the last minute.
©2008 Ron Bain, all rights reserved. You must have written permission from the author in order to republish this work.
Published: Thursday, October 30, 2008
Last modified: Thursday, October 30, 2008
The views expressed in this article are those of Ron Bain only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Ron Bain is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
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Reader Comments:
Posted By: daddysteve
Date: 2008-10-30 15:12:34
I'm toying with voting libertarian for future ballot access, not Bob Barr. Haven't decided yet. Nothing like waiting until the last second.