In the 1990's the Soviet Union collapsed after a failed invasion of Afghanistan, uncontestable competition from the economies of the United States, Germany and Japan and controversial political reforms at home. Except for a few surviving dictatorships Bolshevikism is dead. The fall of such an oppressive economic system has opened up huge new market potentials, stimulating the rise of new economies. With the surplus Soviet weaponry that fed the ranks of non-western militaries becoming obsolete, nations emerging from the settling dust of the Cold War are now developing weapons technology of their own. Meanwhile American politicians, admirals and generals who dreamed of the fall of the great Soviet enemy are cringing at the unexpected results: India and China profiting from uncontrollable growth, a competitive Europe recovering some of their old dominance after the World Wars, a Russia clinging to and expanding the power of their former empire, religious fanatics turning against the Americans that helped fuel their independence. Its turning into a bloody mess where the number of superpowers coexisting hasn't been seen since 1914, but who will prevail.
Certainly not America. We are not a nation destined, by our founders or God, to be a superpower. The unregulated capitalism we have fostered since the beginning obviously would result in the rise of the middle class and thus the loss of our industry base, meaning, in short, we will never be able to produce ships or tanks on the scale of World War II. God sandwiched our country between two huge oceans and put the unpopulated to our north and the corrupt impoverished to our south. We are not on the main stage, we are not, therefore, in a position to be the star of the play. My question to Senator McCain and Mayor Giuliani therefore is why are we trying to steal the show?
How do you expect to maintain military dominance with a service based economy? How do you intend to win conventional wars with supply lines stretching the globe? How do you intend to try and pay for it?
Jefferson wanted us to be a rural libertarian nation. One that takes a path separate from our European fatherlands. Why then, are we trying to lead the pack down the old path? It is not in our tradition and it is not possible. In the end another land and people will be victorious, what will that cost us?
But who will be victorious if not us? China? India? Europe? Russia?
China has the benefits of Stalinist totalitarianism left over from the Soviets and capitalism injected by the good will of President Nixon, meaning they have the perks of the later with the irresponsibility and control of the former, a very successful combination.
The Chinese economy grew by 11.4% in 2007. Now many optimists in the United States would say that economy is entirely dependent on the American, German and Japanese buyer, but the Chinese middle class is on the rise. This can be proven through statistics in the auto industry. According to a Dan Lienert article on Forbes.com the Chinese car market is the fastest growing in the world, and if that doesn't prove the purchase power of the Chinese populace those afore mentioned optimists are ignorant. One would then argue that the rise of the middle class the Chinese themselves would loose their cheap labor force and therefore their industrial might would be finished before it really started. Wrong again, the absolute power held by the government and the sheer numbers of people in China means there will always be a large lower class to support the industrial component. Look at the difference of the inland Chinese cities and the coastal regions for an example of the class separation that makes China's boom a long term threat.
Second is China's military boom. The nation's defence budget is so debated I won't even mention any numbers. Most impartial estimates place it far more than the official amount released by the government and a bit less than the estimate of the CIA.
This money is going to new tank technology, such as the type-98 tank, an equal match for our M1A2. These tanks have a very potent tank-to-tank missile that American tank technology has little answer to. These are not the T-72s of the Iraqi Army.
The Air Force is also benefiting from ample funds and new technology. Just last year the JF-17 was released, it is a modern fighter not of the potency of America's F22 Raptor or the latest Eurojet, but it could compete when in numbers and is a fair match with F16s and F22s, th mainstay of our fighter wings.
This fighter was not a solely Chinese project, it was a joint development project with the Pakistani Air Force. In fact, Pakistan was the first to acquire the planes. This is only one example of military cooperation between the two nations. With India and China the two fastest growing economies in the world tensions are naturally going to occur, and the Chinese are using the Indian's old enemy the Pakistanis to try and gain the upper hand. This is only one example of a global network China is building, one that is only naturally going to come in conflict with the falling empires of America and the United Kingdom.
The Chinese are a strong presence in the Sudan and import a large percent of their oil from the region. Oil is also coming in from a new pipeline through Kazakhstan. These sources are much more secure than ours in the Middle East. Although China has a presence there as well, with ballistic missile development programs with Iran and Saudi Arabia. In the Western Hemisphere Cuba has turned to China as an economic opportunity in the face of American sanctions and is one of China's booming transport system development market's largest buyers. There are also satellite communications interception sites in Cuba operated by the Chinese military. These pose a significant threat to American communication systems. Many other South American nations have seen the military potential of the Asian superpower and joint military training is common in our continent's southern neighbor.
The largest danger that could catapult China into the worlds next great superpower is the naval expansions taking place. If the Chinese navy were ever able to match the combined forces of England and America she would be able to secure natural resources and woo new allies. It would be a hopeless situation for us. In 2003 the People's Liberation Army Navy launched it's first Aegis Cruiser, the modern naval necessity for a superpower. The old Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag was purchased in 2001 and has been used for training. In 2007 the navy announced it was developing an aircraft carrier. If the Chinese economy is any example the Chinese Naval growth will be a shock to the United States and the world.
India, however, already has an aircraft carrier, the Vikrant, in full production. India's growth has also been substantial. We are only seeing her recovery from British rule, ended in 1947, now. Her economy as well as military have been growing by leaps and bounds. However, I feel India's impact will be short lived. Her government is not as ambitious as the Chinese, her ground forces not nearly as strong, and her economy, like ours in the US, is service not industry based. She will play a large role in the future, but her obstacles are to many to compete with the likes of China or Europe. The rising middle class, however, is an encouraging sign for her people.
Russia, despite the loss of her Soviet power and international influence, is also a power. Like India she does not have the potential of China, but with proper leadership, she will likely be a major factor in coming years. She has a varied economy which has industrial capabilities, but her technology is outdated, particularly in terms of the military. Putin is far too confrontational with the West and likely to be far to erratic when itcomes to real decision making. I feel we will have to wait till Putin's fall from influence to see Russia's true colors.
Europe is likely the only real competitor with China. Economic growth is not nearly as fast, Germany's being 2% in 2007, but militarily the European Union holds the most cards. The Eurojet is second to none and German tank technology is still on top with the Leopard 2. The industrial base of the economies of continental Europe are there and remain healthy.
However there are weaknesses not seen in China. The Europeans influence isn't as strong globally, socialism makes their financial situation unstable, and the state of their union is shakey at best. The French and Germans are obligated to stimulate their eastern partners who don't always agree on issues of policy. It doesn't seem likely now, but I wouldn't be surprised if nations like Germany France and Spain decided they could do better alone in the distant future.
This is only a current analysis and the future is never certain. A Sino-American war is not yet certain, but it is likely a war we couldn't win. One thing is, however, clear, this is a new age and we as a nation should be careful.
©2008 C.J. Anderson, all rights reserved. You must have written permission from the author in order to republish this work.
Published: Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Last modified: Tuesday, January 29, 2008
The views expressed in this article are those of C.J. Anderson only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. C.J. Anderson is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
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Reader Comments:
Posted By: the statist
Date: 2008-01-29 11:23:46
The Chinese economy is just as unstable if not more than Europe's. As far as military technology, the United States is so far ahead, that the submarines that we decommission are coveted heavily by foriegn Navies. Our Airplanes and technology are years ahead. The last thing that the Chinese would want to do is get in a war with thier largest trading partner. Ron Paul is right about trade forming friendships. We have proved this with Cuba. If we don't trade with that nation, they truely will suffer. China continues to stiffle natural capitalism by enacting all kinds of new laws. When Iraq has stablized, Iran and Syria will be under pressure to stop terrorism. This is the reality of the situation.
Posted By: Michael T. Chang
Date: 2008-01-30 17:40:33
The author seemed to have painted too rosy a picture for the future China as if all the konwn obstacles ,now or future, wouldn't stop China from becoming a superpower on the world stage.The road to the top could be delayed, sidetracked,or derailed by detriments unknown or couldn't be anitcipated by the author or other experts at the present time.Past performance can hardly guarantee the future success. China is no expection.For the time being, China is in a desperate need of oil, gas, and raw materials from overseas to feed her export-orienated economy,if her breath-taking economic growth is to be sustained. This is why China has been shopping around globaly to look for energy supplies and raw materials. China also needs to build a modern navy to protect sea lanes for the smooth flows of her exports and inports, spercially energy supplies and raw materials.China's current navy strength or its potential has been grossly exaggerated.Take China's Aiges cruisers for example, they are no match for Japanese's counerpart, let alone American's. In 20-30 years' time, China could exceed the US's in total war ships operated but not necessarily in total strength.
Even if China becomes a superpoer in due time, her posture as well as substance would never be confrontational.Due to the largeness of her land and population, she would be forever too occupied internally to have an ambition for territotial expansions or world dominance.